... for some flexibility but also raises the risks of further escalation
The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict has demonstrated an unprecedented use of missile capabilities... ... combinations of conventional … capabilities, together with the unique deterrent effect of nuclear weapons.’ Further, as noted by the U.S. Congressional Budget Office, the dual... ... Although Russia has rejected the recent U.S. proposal to
resum
e systematic dialogue on strategic stability and arms control, both states should continue to seek other opportunities—whether...
... independent expertise. It attributes more than 1,900 TNWs to Russia [SIPRI Yearbook 2022: 355-368]. However, until recently, tactical nuclear weapons did not feature in Russia’s official documents and declarations.
There is another paradox of nuclear deterrence associated with the phenomenon of limited nuclear war. The enhancement of strategic stability [
37
] through the START treaties and some weapons programs of Russia and the United States since the early ...
... in the same vein at the St. Petersburg Economic Forum. Perhaps, the patriarch of the Russian school of realism knows more than others, anticipatively looking beyond the... ... break down the habitual scheme of things?
Aleksey Arbatov:
The Ukrainian Crisis and Strategic Stability
Regardless of the motives behind this proposal, it requires rational... ... considering the fundamental importance of the issue. After all, we are talking about nuclear weapons, which are associated not just with a breakdown but with a possible...
Working Paper No. 68/2022
Working Paper No. 68/2022
The first atomic bomb was designed almost eight decades ago. Since then, the nuclear factor has become one of the game-changers in international relations. The possession of nuclear weapons has become especially important in modern times, as discussions of the fatal destructiveness the use of atomic weapons for all mankind have reintensified. There is increasing speculation on this topic in the international arena. Nevertheless,...
... tensions with China and its decision to achieve strategic parity with the United States, the U.S. response should soon be expected.
The element of confrontation between the U.S. and China, the decision made by the UK to increase the number of deployed nuclear weapons of its own, as well as the aggravation of relations between Russia and the United States, together with the dialogue on strategic stability put on hold, usher in a new stage in the nuclear arms race in the world. Perhaps, this stressful situation will lead to a new multilateral arms control system.
At the doctrinal level, the United States has already indicated a transition ...
... statements of Russia’s leadership imply a broader interpretation of nuclear deterrence and thus affect strategic stability. In particular “aggressive statements” and “illegitimate sanctions” by foreign states were not envisaged as a reason to use nuclear weapons in the Strategic Stability Concept approved by Moscow and Washington in 1990 [Joint statement... 1990]. They are also absent from Russia’s 2018 Military Doctrine and the Fundamentals of Russia’s Nuclear Policy of 2020.
Certainly, the innovations in Russia’s nuclear policy following the start of the SMO do not evidence the Kremlin’s intention to start a nuclear war—rather; ...
... nuclear-weapon states possess at least one component of this “package.” Nuclear superpowers, such as the United States, Russia and China, have all the three components (the United States, however, lacks the RMLs), while smaller nuclear states have ... ... projectile any time soon was totally unthinkable. Besides, only heavy aircraft could at that time offer the capability of delivering nuclear weapons across many thousands of kilometers, which was the ultimate requirement in the stand-off between the United States ...
... this step (it depends on how to interpret the document).
If to look at the Basic Principles as a tool for strengthening the strategic stability relations with the United States, its allies and other nuclear-armed states, then the meaning of the document is not so clear.
The publication of the Basic Principles triggered a discussion over Russian nuclear doctrine, and a dispute over the conditions for the nuclear weapons use with the participation of such officials as Marshall Billingsley, the U.S. Presidential Special Representative ...
... these global threats to strategic stability, based on the experience gained in the bipolar era? First, all the parties involved (Russia, the United States and China) will have to find common ground in terms of what in their opinion constitutes strategic stability; develop and formalize a common understanding of the danger of ICT threats; and, of course, develop common ... ... forces is detected. These steps may provide building blocks for an ICT deterrence policy, similar to what was done with regard to nuclear weapons in the bipolar era.
At the same time, it would be reasonable to start work on an ICT arms control regime (statements,...
... the 2020 Review Conference of the Parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). Withdrawal from the INF Treaty and, more importantly, refusal... ... preserving the non-proliferation regime may provide a major incentive for maintaining Russia-US cooperation, even if in a limited scope.
Compared to the twentieth century... ... search for new models for reducing nuclear risks and strengthening global and regional strategic stability.
First published in the
DOC Research Institute
.
