What trends will prevail in world politics in 2017?

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Foreign Affairs: Analysis

19 january 2017

Judging the Effects: The Shaping Iranian Perspective on JCPOA and Trump's Options

Abdolrasool Divsallar PhD Candidate of Political Science/Iranian Issues at University of Tehran, Research Fellow at Institute for Middle East Strategic Studies

  2

The second year of Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action implementation is marked with serious uncertainty about its future. Critics in Tehran call the agreement ineffective and Trump considers it to be a historically bad negotiation. But as election days in Tehran approach, it's becoming more important to have a look at Iranian perspective on JCPOA. Iranian Public opinion positively reacted to JCPOA. This article is an inside view to provide a better understanding on how Iranian perception of JCPOA is shaping.

Day Figure

The proportion of foreign students studying in the U.S. and Russia is exactly the same – 5%

The proportion of foreign students studying in the U.S. and Russia is exactly the same – 5%

In the 2016/2017 academic year, the number of foreign students studying in the United States surpassed one million for the first time ever, and stands at 1,044,000 (a 7 per cent increase from the previous year). As of today, around 5% of all students in the United States come from abroad. Foreign students bring in $38 billion dollars to the U.S. economy every year. Despite the widespread belief that the Russian education system is in the midst of a crisis, foreigners also account for around 5 per cent of the country’s student population.

Author: Andrey Kortunov.

18 january 2017

2017 Foreign Policy Outlook

Ivan Timofeev PhD in Political Science, Director of Programs at Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC), Head of "Contemporary State" program at Valdai Discussion Club.

  13

Most foreign policy forecasts open with statements about the uncertainty of the international situation. This is a convenient starting point, as it allows the analyst to hide behind and avoid taking responsibility for his or her forecasts. But if we really want to get an idea about what might await us in the future, we have to understand the “corridors of certainty”, which are visible for 2017. They are far from rosy and speak about the necessity to develop fundamentally new solutions to the accumulated problems.

17 january 2017

Russia and China Respond to THAAD

Vasily Kashin PhD in Political Science, Senior Research Fellow at the Center of Strategic Problems of Northeast Asia, SCO and BRICS, University of Far Eastern Studies, RAS, RIAC expert

  18

On January 12, 2017, in Moscow Russia’s and China’s representatives agreed to take joint measures against the US missile-defense system in South Korea. Vasily Kashin shares what missile-defense system deployment on the Korean peninsula would mean for regional security and what countermeasures Moscow and Beijing may take.

RIAC Reader

Anti-government extremist organizations in Syria

Anti-government extremist organizations in Syria

This longread describes the main anti-government groups – parties to the Syrian conflict (both currently existing and those which have already merged with other groups). The longread's authors attempted to trace their connections and the dynamics of their development. This is clearly a very ambitious task which goes beyond the current study. Yet the review covers the basic range of the main extremist groups participating in the Syrian crisis, thus enabling the reader to get as complete a picture of the current events as possible.

Captain Smollet's Column

Vikings Have Got a Plan

Vikings Have Got a Plan

Storting adopted the Long Term Defense Plan for the Norwegian Armed Forces. The Plan represents a historic increase in defence spending. Among major results, the Government has ordered new American antisubmarine aircraft.

Author: Alexander Yermakov.

Eurasian Chronicle

Global Issues Overweigh the Allies

Global Issues Overweigh the Allies

Vladimir Putin signed Executive Order approving the Foreign Policy Concept of the Russian Federation. This wasn’t unexpected—the Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergey Lavrov spoke about the preparation of the document in the spring. As the minister promised, the new concept, as prepared within his office, has turned out to be more global than its predecessor.

Author: Sergey Rekeda.

Day Figure

Transport Revolution of the 20’s Might Decrease World Vehicle Fleet by 90%. Winners and Losers

Transport Revolution of the 20’s Might Decrease World Vehicle Fleet by 90%. Winners and Losers

World transport system is about to face a revolution due to the introduction of self-driving cars. By the end of the 2020’s cars with no driver will be able to deprive traditional vehicles like cars, trucks, and busses, of competitive advantage or even push them out of the market in the developed countries. Along with the positive changes, «transport revolution» will rise two challenges for Russia: decrease of the oil price and increase of the road quality requirements.

Author: Andrey Kortunov.

16 january 2017

Much Cry and Little Wool

Anastasia Borik Postgraduate student, MGIMO-University

  14

On January 9, Venezuela's National Assembly declared that President Nicolas Maduro had "abandoned his post”. With catchy headlines spreading quickly around the world, the recent vote resulted to be very limited, and the Venezuelan opposition did not manage to make a single step to push the Chavez’s followers away from power.

12 january 2017

A Difficult Peace: The UN and the Challenges of Modern Peacekeeping

Dmitry Borisov International Security expert, MA in International Affairs, Sciences Po Paris/MGIMO

  8

As the saying goes, peace, like war, must be waged, and the United Nations (UN) has been at the forefront of this battle for almost 70 years. From the UN Emergency Force (UNEF), the first ever peacekeeping mission set up in 1956 at the height of the Suez crisis, to the 2014 UN mission in the Central African Republic (MINUSCA), UN peacekeeping (UNPK) continues to change and adapt to the constantly evolving dynamics of conflict. With at least 40 active conflicts around the world today according to the IISS Armed Conflict Database, the need for UN peacekeeping is as acute as ever, but the institution itself is in flux.

11 january 2017

Ukraine: 25 Years of Missed Opportunities

Aleksandr Gushchin PhD in History, Associate Professor, Department of Post-Soviet Countries, Russian State University for the Humanities, RIAC expert

  26

2016 has in many respects been a milestone year for the region that is conventionally referred to as the post-Soviet space. It marks 25 years since the disintegration of the USSR and the creation of the new independent states. Almost everywhere in the region this quarter of a century has been extremely rich in socio-political changes. Ukraine occupies a special place even against this background as a unique example of large-scale transformations. Recent events in the country demonstrate that the very model of Ukrainian statehood is full of hidden traps and pitfalls, and that the Ukrainian elites have in many instances been unable to cope with the mission of ensuring the development of society and the government, which has resulted in a number of serious crises.

11 january 2017

2016 – Contours of the New Reality

Ivan Timofeev PhD in Political Science, Director of Programs at Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC), Head of "Contemporary State" program at Valdai Discussion Club.

  2

The year 2016 is important for understanding the changes in the international arena that started two years before. It was in 2016 that we began to see the new reality – the more or less clear contours of the future – take shape. Let’s analyze the contours of this new reality.

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