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Foreign Affairs: Analysis

Eurasian Chronicle

What Does the NATO Warsaw Summit Bode for the Post-Soviet Space?

What Does the NATO Warsaw Summit Bode for the Post-Soviet Space?

The 2016 Warsaw Summit of NATO on July 8–9 will address a range of issues that have direct security implications for the post-Soviet space. Chief of them is whether the security architecture built in Europe after 1991 will be preserved. There is no consensus on the issue among NATO experts and politicians. Opinions range from the desire to limit Russia’s influence in its neighbouring states by any means, including military intervention, to the wish to normalize relations with Moscow out of pragmatic considerations.

Segey Rekeda expects that the best that the Warsaw Summit can deliver is blocking the more radical demands of some East European states that could trigger a new spiral of tensions in Europe. So far peace supporters are in the minority in Western political circles.

24 june 2016

Cooperation in Science and Education to Promote an Innovative Approach to Russia–China Relations

Larisa Smirnova PhD in Political Science, Foreign Lecturer & Foreign Expert at Xiamen University, RIAC expert

  5

Amid the apparent restrictions of extensive development models in both Russia and China, bilateral cooperation in science and education appears to be an increasingly ambitious objective aiming to build up the national innovative capacity of the two countries.

Unlucky Number. On the Political Crisis in Croatia

Unlucky Number. On the Political Crisis in Croatia

On June 16, 2016, yet another Croatian government collapsed. On June 20, Croatian legislators voted to dissolve Parliament (Sabor), and this decision will take effect on July 15. In accordance with the Constitution, new parliamentary elections should take place within 30–60 days. The country has thus been plunged into a governmental crisis. But this crisis did not begin today or even last week: during the 25 years of its independence, Croatia has gone through 13 governments. Does the crisis in Croatia seem to be a permanent condition?

Author: Alexander Pivovarenko

“You Have No Place in Iraq": The Retaking of Fallujah and the Future of Iraq

“You Have No Place in Iraq": The Retaking of Fallujah and the Future of Iraq

This is not the first time since the fall of the Saddam Hussein regime in 2003 that the long-suffering city of Fallujah, dubbed the “City of Mosques” for the sheer number of these holy places that it contains, has come under siege. In 2003 and 2004 Fallujah was stormed by military contingents consisting primarily of U.S. troops. In 2014 Fallujah fell into the hands of ISIS. Two years later the city was reclaimed by the government which has announced the future recapture of Mosul. Will Iraq be content with military victory or the government has a strategy for the rehabilitation of the regions and stabilizing the situation in the country?

Author: Ruslan Mamedov.

23 june 2016

Li Wencong (ICBC): We Consider Russia Our Strategic Partner

  1

Russian and Chinese economies are becoming more and more interrelated. Economic cooperation between two countries covers a large variety of spheres, including banking. The President of Bank ICBC (JSC) (the russian subsidiary of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd.) Li Wencong shares his views on the Russian investment climate, competition on the market and unveils the ICBC’s further plans.

22 june 2016

Azerbaijan and the Four Day War: Breaking the Karabakh Deadlock

Murad Gassanly PhD candidate at the School of Politics and International Relations, Cardiff University

  17

More than two months have now passed since the worst outbreak of hostilities between Armenia and Azerbaijan in the Nagorno Karabakh region in over 20 years. Despite widespread pessimism during the immediate aftermath of the fighting, the Four Day War brought renewed dynamism to the international mediation efforts. The flurry of diplomatic and political activity that followed it is in stark contrast to the previously moribund peace process.

MC-21. The New Hope

MC-21. The New Hope

Last week the city of Irkutsk was the venue for the widely advertised and long-awaited ceremony, the official rollout of the flight model of the Russian medium-range airliner MC-21, which is definitely the most ambitious civil aviation project since the days of the USSR. The maker is to start series production in 2020 and turn out 20 vehicles, with the planned rate of 70 planes annually to be reached in 2023. The trick is the demand.

Author: Alexander Ermakov

21 june 2016

Russia and Afghanistan – We Should Be More than Military Partners

  2

Russia is among few prominent players in the Central Asia due to the creation of EEU. However, not all countries in the region are involved in integrational processes. Afghanistan remains one of the key counties with solid capacity for regional development but the country has been struggling with many internal and external difficulties, mainly security threats, for decades now. This prevents Afghanistan from participating in many regional initiatives. On June, 16, 2016 RIAC hosted a meeting with Afghan Deputy Foreign Minister Hekmat Khalil Karzai, who shared his views on the Afghanistan’s future and stressed that Russia should be more involved in regional development.

21 june 2016

Europe`s Eastern Frontline: The Time of Change

Dmitry Stefanovich Independent expert

  7

Rhythmical changes between war and peace have been quite normal for the greater part of the European history. Authors of the report "Frontline Allies: War and Change in Central Europe" produced by Center for European Policy Analysis on the results of the U.S.-Central Europe Strategic Assessment Group believe that the period of “long peace” after the close of the Cold War has ended. The report suggests drawing the "new frontline" along the eastern border of Norway, Sweden, Finland, Denmark, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia, Bulgaria, Hungary and Romania. NATO is mentioned much more often than the EU, and the OSCE is totally neglected, as well as the late CFE Treaty.

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20 june 2016

America’s War Against Itself for the Greater Middle East

Yuri Barmin Analyst on Russia and its Middle East policy, MPhil International Relations, University of Cambridge, RIAC expert

  4

The book “America’s War for the Greater Middle East: A Military History” by Andrew Bacevich, a retired colonel and a military historian, represents a detailed account of US overt as well as covert military involvement in the Islamic World. The author goes through 36 years of interventions in the Middle East starting with the revolution in Iran trying to link them to political developments in Washington and find a common theme in them. It is a harsh, yet a necessary look not just at where the United States is in the Middle East today, but at how and by whom its foreign policy is designed.

17 june 2016

On the Matter of the Gulf Cooperation Council’s Regional Security Concept

Vasily Kuznetsov PhD in History, Director, Center for Arab and Islamic Studies, Institute of Oriental Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences, RIAC expert

  8

In early 2016, the Saudi Gulf Research Center published a report in Arabic subtitled “An Arab Gulf Union is the Future” dedicated to Gulf regional security. Could a different idea be proposed as an alternative to Saudi Arabia’s exclusive security system project?

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