... population of Idlib province is about 4 million people). In this regard, Guterres
called
for a one-year extension of cross-border operations. Ankara, Washington and a number of Western countries need to extend the mechanism of cross-border operations in Idlib through Turkey. Syria itself, as well as the states supporting it, including Russia, believe that all the necessary humanitarian aid can proceed through interaction with the de jure Syrian government in Damascus. The main task for Damascus, on the one hand, and ...
.... Russia will not like that it is an extension at all. But for all sides the benefits should outweigh the downsides.
Russia will know that Western actors will respond to failure by unilaterally channelling non-UN legitimised aid into the country via Turkey. Russia will lose the opportunity to slowly move Idlib back into Damascus’s orbit and the country’s de facto partition will be entrenched. This outcome is also likely to lead to increased instability as aid flows decrease, with subsequent tensions between Moscow’s allies, Damascus and Ankara.
...
... pandemic became yet another challenge: although the HTS supported the lockdown measures imposed by the SSG, many rank-and-file militants refused to obey and continued their Friday prayers, which make it impossible to maintain social distancing.
What is Idlib for Turkey: A Red Line or a Pawn in a Big Game?
Ensuring the security of Turkey’s southern borders and countering Kurdish separatism have been and remain Turkey’s unconditional priorities. In that sense, retaining control over the security zone in the ...
... — the presence of foreign troops remains.
Despite the “betrayal” of the Kurds in the north, Trump is still keeping troops in East Euphrates. He ordered the troops to guard the oil fields near Deir Ez-Zor, where the oil plant of Conoco operates. Turkey, together with the armed opposition, controls the north of Idlib, Afrin, Al-Bab and the territories between Tel Abyad and Ras al-Ain. Turks and Americans are not going to leave the Arab country, at least while Bashar al-Assad remains in power.
On the other hand, Russia and Iran are staying firmly behind Assad....
... including the town of Khan Shaykhun. Approximately 200 Turkish soldiers are still surrounded in the town of Murak, which makes the situation extremely uncomfortable for Ankara. This Turkish contingent served as an observation post established under the Turkey–Russia Memorandum on Idlib signed in Sochi on September 17, 2018 as part of de-escalation in the Idlib zone.
The situation deteriorated following reports that the Syrian Air Force had carried out an aerial strike on a Turkish convoy. After a telephone conversation between ...
... Russian-Turkish relations. These negative connotations will be exploited by the provocateurs responsible for the tragic death of Russia's ambassador Andrei Karlov.
In the selection of the date of the next summit, the upcoming March municipal elections in Turkey were likely taken into account. Assad's offensive in Idlib can undermine the rating of the Justice and Development Party.
Increasing understanding of the real danger and the likelihood of the Russian-Iranian-Syrian campaign formation and solidification, may soon lead Turkey to acknowledge that it is better ...
... this will conclude the active stage of the confrontation and mark a turning point in the Syrian campaign. But this will only be possible if the government and the Kurds, which have up to 50,000 troops, come to an agreement and settle the problem of Idlib.
It is believed that Turkey is willing to stop its operations in northeast Syria if the Syrian government and its allies do the same in Idlib. Ankara has faced problems carrying out its plans in Idlib, which has hindered the implementation of the agreement reached by the ...
... war-torn country. The break of Idlib deal is especially dangerous for the mainstream parties in the EU when far rights gain power from Sweden to Italy.
The single looser of EU–Russia–Turkey alliance is the United States. If four countries agree on Idlib, Russia and Turkey will have more capacity and common ground to raise the question of the American presence in the East Euphrates. Last week Lavrov reminded the US is playing a dangerous game by creating Syrian Kurdistan. The US will do anything possible to undermine ...
... Reconstruction of Syria
Even though the Syrian National Army (SNA) is not deployed in Syria’s de-escalation zone, it does have an immediate influence on the situation in the region. Should the army’s units be retrained, re-armed and equipped by Turkey and shifted to Idlib, the situation there could change in terms of both possibly repelling Bashar al-Assad’s offensive and suppressing radicals there. Additionally, should the need arise, SNA units may come over to the National Front for Liberation side and join their ...
... other hand, Ankara has finally put Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (formerly Jabhat al-Nusra, a.k.a. Al-Qaeda) on the list of terrorist organizations, something that it was unwilling to do before. To all appearances, Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham’s dominance in Idlib no longer allows Turkey to use this organization in the important game of maintaining its image as a defender of the Sunni world, an image that could be severely harmed if Ankara fails to distance itself resolutely from HTS. At the same time, Erdogan made sure that this ...
