... population of Idlib province is about 4 million people). In this regard, Guterres
called
for a one-year extension of cross-border operations. Ankara, Washington and a number of Western countries need to extend the mechanism of cross-border operations in Idlib through Turkey. Syria itself, as well as the states supporting it, including Russia, believe that all the necessary humanitarian aid can proceed through interaction with the de jure Syrian government in Damascus. The main task for Damascus, on the one hand, and healthy opposition forces in Idlib, on the other, is to ensure humanitarian ...
.... Russia will not like that it is an extension at all. But for all sides the benefits should outweigh the downsides.
Russia will know that Western actors will respond to failure by unilaterally channelling non-UN legitimised aid into the country via Turkey. Russia will lose the opportunity to slowly move Idlib back into Damascus’s orbit and the country’s de facto partition will be entrenched. This outcome is also likely to lead to increased instability as aid flows decrease, with subsequent tensions between Moscow’s allies, Damascus and Ankara.
...
... himself increasingly view the “Idlib question” through the lens of a difficult dialogue with Russia on the Libyan and Nagorno-Karabakh conflicts (on October 25, Russia’s Aerospace Force delivered a strike against the Syrian Corps militants in Idlib, which Russian media dubbed “
Bakh for Karabakh
” [
1
] ). Turkey has started relocating eight military observation posts in Idlib, as those posts had been blocked in an SAA-liberated area (the post in Murek was evacuated on October 19-20, 2020), which is not only for security reasons, but also due to Turkey’s ...
... YPG from the 30-km zone along the entire Syrian-Turkish border, patrol the 10-km-wide strip and transfer border protection to the Syrian border guards. A ceasefire in the northwest eased Washington's pressure on Ankara.
In general, the situation in Idlib and northeast Syria is frozen. The agreements between Russia and Turkey restrain the threat of escalation. However, in the long run, the deals may fail.
Ruslan Mamedov:
Troubled Partners: What Russia and Turkey are Dividing Up in Syria
Recent attacks in Tel Abyad testify the difficulties of implementing the second ...
... including the town of Khan Shaykhun. Approximately 200 Turkish soldiers are still surrounded in the town of Murak, which makes the situation extremely uncomfortable for Ankara. This Turkish contingent served as an observation post established under the Turkey–Russia Memorandum on Idlib signed in Sochi on September 17, 2018 as part of de-escalation in the Idlib zone.
The situation deteriorated following reports that the Syrian Air Force had carried out an aerial strike on a Turkish convoy. After a telephone conversation between ...
... negotiations as “substantive and effective”. Erdogan added that the leaders of Troika discussed "all steps", that is, all options on this issue.
With less than two months left until the next summit of the “Astana troika”, the situation in Idlib may prove to be a catalyst for positive change within the Russia-Iran-Turkey alliance, bringing intra-alliance cooperation to a whole new level, or it may trigger the onset of its collapse. Urging against such a split, Erdogan told his partners: "If we have passed the sea, we cannot drown ourselves in the river."
...
... legitimacy of the ongoing military operation against terrorists in Idlib. Supported by Russia and Iran, the Syrian government forces feel free to conduct this operation in the province that is essentially controlled by terrorists. On the other hand, Russia and Turkey can fight foreign terrorist fighters and radical groups in Idlib, while also coordinating a special approach to the opposition groups which Russian diplomats sometimes describe as “healthy forces.” This calls for a very delicate approach. Russia, Turkey and Iran depend on each other in this sense, and not ...
... war-torn country. The break of Idlib deal is especially dangerous for the mainstream parties in the EU when far rights gain power from Sweden to Italy.
The single looser of EU–Russia–Turkey alliance is the United States. If four countries agree on Idlib, Russia and Turkey will have more capacity and common ground to raise the question of the American presence in the East Euphrates. Last week Lavrov reminded the US is playing a dangerous game by creating Syrian Kurdistan. The US will do anything possible to undermine ...
... the regions of Northern Aleppo, which fell under the country’s “security umbrella” following the Euphrates Shield and Olive Branch operations. Accordingly, preserving the opposition’s control over the regions remaining under its power gives Turkey a chance to head up and supervise the peaceful process together with Russia. Should Idlib transition under Assad’s control before a final political settlement in Syria is achieved, Turkey would essentially be left out of Syrian settlement, which would strip its fosterlings in the ranks of Syria’s opposition of any say and the opportunity ...
... impression that Ankara is currently manoeuvring between Moscow and Washington in a desperate attempt to secure a foothold in Syria. This much was evident at the summit on Syrian settlement between Russia, Turkey and Iran held in Tehran. On the one hand, Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan appears to have successfully staved off the planned massive offensive in Idlib by the Syrian Army with support from Russia and Iran. On the other hand, Ankara has finally put Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (formerly Jabhat al-Nusra, a.k.a. Al-Qaeda) on the list of terrorist organizations, something that it was unwilling to do before. To all appearances, Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham’s ...
