The globalization of Chinese economy goes together with its political invigoration, also oriented to the Arctic which is ambiguously perceived by the international community. Denmark, for example, believes that China “has rightful economic and scientific interests in the Arctic”, while Canada thinks that this interest “threatens the sovereignty” of the Arctic states. These polar attitudes inspire serious debates about real interests, strategy, resources and future of the Chinese Arctic policy
The globalization of Chinese economy goes together with its political invigoration, also oriented to the Arctic which is ambiguously perceived by the international community. Denmark, for example, believes that China “has rightful economic and scientific interests in the Arctic”, while Canada thinks that this interest “threatens the sovereignty” of the Arctic states. These polar attitudes inspire serious debates about real interests, strategy, resources and future of the Chinese Arctic policy.
Chinese interests in the Arctic
Chinese interests in the Arctic are complex and among them there are economic aspects that should be emphasized first of all, as these are the interests in natural resources, transportation and logistics. Second to mention are geopolitical interests closely linked with military and strategic spheres and thirdly – environmental, climatic and other scientific and research interests both from theoretical academic viewpoint and for application purposes.
The interest of PRC to natural resources of the Arctic can be explained at least by two reasons – the relative deficit of such resources in China (its total potential reserves of minerals and raw materials is smaller than that of Russia by 15 times) and by the richness of Arctic resources with hydrocarbons making from 30 to 75% of total forecasted stock on the planet.
The importance of transportation and logistics interests of Beijing in the Arctic is growing ever more with the increase of the export potential of its economy and the recent prominence of China to the first exporting state of the world (2010). The Chinese leadership clearly understands the benefits of commercial transportation via the Arctic seas. The Northwest Passage (the strait between Canada and the Greenland) is the shortest route from the Atlantic into the Pacific, and the Northern Sea Route going all along the Arctic coast of Russia can reduce by nearly twice the distance between China and Western Europe nearly.
Moreover, the exploration of strategically important resources together with the development of new sea routes in the Arctic can definitely have not only commercial and economic value for China, but a geopolitical and – in the future – military and strategic importance. This is directly or indirectly admitted by reputable Chinese experts.
Extremely important components in the complex set of Chinese interests in the Arctic are represented by environmental and climatic aspects. Beijing purposefully has been drawing the attention of the global community to them in recent years, stating, in particular that “the Arctic is the main region responsible for the weather in the Northern hemisphere, including the territory of China”, that there might be a relation between natural disasters in PRC and “stable increase of global temperature and the melting of the Arctic ice play a crucial role in this process”.
The elaboration of China’s comprehensive strategy in the Arctic
Is not yet completed, but we can name the key guidelines and some specific projects developed by Chinese R&D institutes and organizations dealing with the development and initial implementation of this strategy:
- Natural resources of the Arctic, their exploration, prospecting and methods of industrial production;
- Maritime routes and cargo transportation in the Arctic region;
- The Arctic expedition of China;
- Participation in international scientific debates of experts on the Arctic issues;
- The Arctic in international law, legal and international actions of China to clarify and institutionalize the legal status of the Arctic;
- Policy and diplomacy pursued toward the Arctic and Polar countries, search for the partners - countries in the region exploration;
- Military and strategic situation, prospects and scenarios of PRC military presence in the Arctic.
One of the most actively developed projects is the “Arctic expedition” which includes, above of all, regular expeditions to the Arctic Ocean on board of the Chinese icebreaker in summer (from May till September) (such expeditions took place in 1999, 2003, 2008 and 2010 and are planned for 2012 and in average every two years afterwards), and secondly - the studies at the Chinese full time polar research station.
Chinese researchers argue that the internationalization of the Arctic is a subject of international law, actually putting the sign of equality between the rights of the North Polar countries and “other countries conducting the Arctic expeditions”, first of all – China.
In 2000–2010 China notably stepped-up its diplomatic efforts aimed at the Arctic region, e.g. the search for partners mainly between 8 Arctic countries – permanent members of the Arctic Council (in addition to them this organization includes six permanent and three temporary observers. China is among the latter). The official dialogue and cooperation in the extraction of energy resources and cargo transportation at polar latitudes are carried out by PRC jointly with Canada, Norway, Island and Denmark. With the support of Denmark which has special relations with China, the latter wants to become a permanent observer in the Arctic Council, and the official application has already been filed. As for Russia – in January 2011 “Rosneft” and Chinese National Petroleum Company (CNPC) signed a memorandum for the joint prospecting and exploration of mineral deposits in the Arctic. Vice Prime-Minister of the Russian Federation I.I. Sechin said that the parties are in official negotiations on possible cooperation in this sphere.
Availability of resources for China’s mainstreaming in the Arctic
Is rather significant and can be conventionally divided into common and dedicated economic resources that directly and/or indirectly impact the Chinese progress in the Arctic.
The following can be regarded as common economic resources:
- High total GDP (second place in the world by the purchase power parity since 1995 and by the official rate since 2010);
- PRC’s industry in the 2000-ies became the first in terms of key performance indicators – volume of gross output and added value;
- Advanced development of ship building, aero-space industry, transportation and telecommunications, in particular stable growth of total capacities and technical equipment of Chinese shipping companies;
- World record high export revenues over the last two decades (from 1993) as the important source of financing fast economic growth of the country;
- Notable increase of the total R&D allocations (from 0.7% to 1.7% of GDP in 1990–2009) and improvement of their efficiency;
- Ever growing financial resources, e.g. foreign direct investments;
- Largest forex reserves in the world that from 1994 till 2011 have increased by more than 60 times – from 52 bln. to 3.2 trn. Dollars.
The dedicated Chinese resources in view of the Arctic exploration include:
- One of the world most diversified and comprehensive national programs of the Arctic studies, generously financed by the state, well equipped and staffed;
- Full time polar research station “Huang He” that was opened in 2004 at Spitsbergen in the Barents sea (on the land rented from Norway);
- Operational ice-breaker “Xue Long” (“Snow Dragon”) rebuilt and upgraded from the commercial ship purchased in Ukraine.
Prospects for the implementation of Beijing Arctic policy in the coming 5-10 years
In many aspects they will be determined by internal and external factors and circumstances. Thus general accessibility of natural resources and ease of navigation in the Arctic largely depend on the objective external factor – changes in the environment (global warming and speed of ice melting) and on such accelerating factor as fast modernization of technological equipment.
Among the internal factors general Chinese strategic objectives deserve special mentioning, e.g. “China’s Great Strategy” that presupposes turning the country into the largest economic power of the world by 2020, 4-fold increase of GDP compared to 2000, and, as a result – the radical improve of PRC status in the world to make it “from a regional power with a global influence into a global power”.
In the context of the above mentioned circumstances China’s prospects in the Arctic can be conventionally presented as follows:
- In science:
• Development and improvement of the national program for the Arctic research, implemented by Chinese R&D institutes and invited foreign experts;
• Intensification and diversification of studies at PRC polar station at Spitsbergen, construction and commissioning of several new full time research stations in the Arctic at long-rent sites of the Arctic states;
• Three polar expeditions on “Xue Long” icebreaker in 2012–2015 and launching in 2013 of new Chinese built and for-the-Arctic designed powerful icebreaker with the displacement of 8000 tons (the officially announced cost of construction –$ 300m).
- in economic and military domains:
• Beginning of the large-scale preparation and, subject to beneficial circumstances, an industrial exploration of the Arctic mineral resources – both independently and in partnership with other countries and foreign trans-national corporations;
• Planned upscale construction of domestic icebreaking fleet, as well as the construction and modernization of commercial fleet designed to navigate in the Arctic;
• Upgrading of Chinese sea ports in high latitudes, their dedication to promising Arctic routes and evolution into global transportation hubs;
• In view of the future opening of regular commercial sea routes – re-equipment and modernization of PRC Navy and Air Force for protecting relevant interests of China and securing it’s military and strategic presence in the Arctic.
- In international relations:
• Accession of China to the Arctic Council as a permanent observer, an attempt to confer on China rights similar to the rights of the Polar countries due to the fact that it is a state that in the future may have a network of full time Arctic stations and at present regularly performs large-scale polar expeditions;
• Dramatic upgrading of China’ status in the world due to its active participation in the elaboration of the so called “Arctic legislation” and the resolution of other highly important political and legal problems of the Arctic exploration.
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Russia as a global power with the largest territory and mineral resources, as one of the Arctic countries has a unique opportunity to use excessive financial, technological and other resources of China for the full-scale exploration of natural resources taking into account the deficit of domestic funding. China, for example, may be engaged in the joint development of hydrocarbons deposit fields in the Russian Arctic shelf, in the upgrading of the existing and the construction of new international sea ports all along the Northern Sea Route.
