The reshuffling of the Arab world is in full swing. Most likely, Moscow will have to be content with the situation which is shaped without its participation.
Russia says goodbye to Egypt
The string of anti-government protests sweeping the Arab street came out of the blue for the many. Decades-long ruling regimes of Ben Ali in Tunisia, Mubarak in Egypt, Gaddafi in Libya, etc. were fast disappearing from the political map of Maghreb one after another. Even faster was shrinking the influence of the Russian Federation in the region.
The day before
Before the events of 2011 Egypt was the major partner of the Russian Federation in the Middle East. For over half a century such big enterprises built by Russian engineers as Aswan dam, aluminium plant in Nagh- Hammadi and Helluan metallurgical plant have been operating here. Russia was the sixth largest trade partner of Egypt with 4.2% of overall trade turnover. In its turn, Egypt was the 34th largest foreign trade partner of Russia. In 2010 the volume of trade and economic cooperation between the two countries amounted to $2.1 bn., with Egypt being the third largest importer of Russian wheat – in 2010 it bought 4.8 ml of wheat from Russia. Besides, the number of Russian holidaymakers visiting Egypt has been steadily growing over the last decade – 16.9% of Russians who usually spend their holidays abroad visited Egypt in 2009. As a result, Egypt became the second after Turkey most popular destination among Russian tourists.
However, on the whole, Russia failed to reach the level of cooperation with Egypt it used to have during Hamal Abdel Nasser rule. In 1976, two years before the conclusion of the Camp David accords with Israel, Anwar as-Sadat unilaterally denounced the Treaty on Friendship and Cooperation between Egypt and USSR. When Hosni Mubarak took the office Soviet-Egyptian relations started to normalize, largely due to the fact that he was well disposed to the Soviet Union – from March 1964 to April 1965 the then future president took the course of staff studies at Frunze Military Academy in Moscow. Despite this, the US influence on the Egyptian policy was already strong enough. Besides, after the disintegration of the USSR the Middle East region was no longer in the sphere of national interests for the Russian government
“Anomie”
Although the influence of Russia in Egypt has significantly decreased over the last decades and the presence of Moscow in Cairo is not felt, the implications of anti-government protests in early 2011 and the following resignation of President Mubarak can have a negative effect on it. Russia has failed to define its position towards Mubarak’s stepping down and continued to be inactive even after 11.02 events. After Mubarak left the President’s office American aircrafts with US officials on board kept on arriving practically every week, while the only visit of Russia’s Foreign Minister Serguey Lavrov to Cairo took place in March 2011.
Mindful that the majority of Egyptian population looks back into the past, recalling with nostalgia the years of Hamal Abdel Nasser rule and close cooperation with the Soviet Union, even a small gesture of goodwill, say, the shipment of a bulk carrier with grain to Egypt, would be rejoiced by Egyptians and could become the starting point for building close relationships with the future leadership of the country.
Moreover, at the most dramatic for a new Egypt moment the Russian government relieved its Ambassador to this country of his position. The Ambassador to another Middle East country was appointed to fill the vacancy but he hasn’t assumed the office yet. Thus, for more than four months Russia hasn’t had its key representative in Cairo which can be interpreted as the demonstration of absence of any foreign policy ambitions towards Egypt.
The bottom line is…
That said, further prospects and implications of the Egyptian uprising in 2011 will go beyond the issue of Russian tourists.
Firstly, from recent developments it is becoming more and more evident that the Islamic World in the future is most likely to lay claims to the rest of the world from the position of strength. The removal of the ban on Muslim Brotherhood’s activities in Egypt and granting them the right to act legitimately strengthen the positions of radical Islamists, both in the countries where Muslim population prevail, such as Syria and Libya, and in predominantly non-Muslim states. This above all concerns Russia, which is due to its multi-religious nature very sensitive to the enhancement of Islamists. We should also remember that the number of Russian students studying primarily theology and Muslim law at universities of many Arab states is growing from year to year. The oldest university of the world Al-Azhar takes the lead in this regard. During the last years of Mubarak reign many more Russian students had problems with Egyptian law-enforcement bodies mainly because they come under the influence of different extremist groups. While before the revolution of 2011 Egyptian special services cracked down on these groups we shouldn’t expect similar actions in post-Mubarak Egypt. It might lead to the situation when a great number of Egyptian religious universities’ graduates going back to Russia will start to promote ultimate forms of Islamism.
Secondly, the fall of Mubarak regime is already having negative logistical effects on oil and gas supplies to Europe and USA, the largest consumers of Arab energy resources. Early this year many Russian experts made predictions about the reduction of supplies of hydrocarbons to Europe from North African and Middle East countries. Now, with the eventual victory of rebels in Libya and the Egyptian army gaining control over the Suez channel, it has become clear that hopes of Russian Ministry of Finance for the hike of oil prices are castles in the air. This, in turn, brought about the fall of the rouble exchange rate starting from August 2011.
Thirdly, the fall of the Mubarak regime is already exerting influence on the redistribution of power in the Middle East. It’s unlikely that anti-government protests in Syria could have continued indefinitely but for the success of the opposition forces in spiritually close to it Egypt. The victory of protesters in Syria and the toppling of B.Assad will expose the flanks of Lebanese Hizballah, and it might lead to the break out of a civil war in both countries. In any event, Russia risks losing its last true ally in the Middle East and becoming an outsider in the fight for the influence in the region.
We shouldn’t expect that Russia’s influence in Egypt will grow. Mubarak, despite his loyalty to the West, was a patriot and tried to pursue independent of the USA policy, which allowed Russia to achieve high level of cooperation with Egypt. After 2011 November elections either pro-Western representatives of liberal political parties or Islamists may come to power in this country. Russia exercises influence neither on the former nor on the latter. It’s hard to assume which scenario is better for Russia. Rather, Moscow will have to be content with the situation which shaped without its participation.
The reshuffling of the Arab world is in full swing. In autumn 2011 elections will take place in Tunisia and Egypt, Syria and Yemen are at crossroads, Libya is building a new nation state, with the West being involved, albeit not always successfully, in all these processes. Russia’s presence in the region remains to be inconspicuous, if not coming to nought.
