Logic, common sense and event analysis suggest that a large-scale war with Ukraine is completely irrelevant to Moscow’s plans
Recently, there have been all the more articles with headlines screaming “What does Vladimir Putin really think about Donbass?” or “When will the war between Russia and Ukraine break out?” To be honest, I really envy the authors of such publications. All these contributors must have supernatural telepathic channels of communication with the Russian leadership, which allows them to unmistakably predict the Kremlin’s ...
... President Putin and President Biden in Geneva. As you know, the heads of our countries constructively discussed the intra-Ukrainian conflict. They agreed that the Minsk agreements serve as the sole framework for political settlement of the conflict in Donbass. Instead of working on ways to implement the Minsk arrangements, certain State Department officials blame Russia for all the troubles in Ukraine and label my country an “aggressor.”
We have repeatedly warned the administration that such counterproductive statements have nothing to do with reality. Solutions can be found only through diplomatic means without propaganda. Right now the ...
... However, the American and EU diplomats may well use such manoeuvres to put pressure on Russia. The main threat is the loss of control over the situation, should the symbolic whipping turn into a real conflict.
In the end, full-scale military operations in Donbass in the near future are not the baseline scenario. Russia is a strong adversary; the risk of big losses for Ukraine are great. Accordingly, it is hardly worth considering a scenario of a sharp tightening of sanctions against Russia. No radical aggravation—no radical sanctions.
At the same time, politics likes surprises. Erroneous assessments, the personal ...
... the future negotiation process. Based on my research and observations, I believe Russian interests in Ukraine can be summarized in three key points:
First, Russia is highly interested in the implementation of the Minsk agreements and reintegration of Donbasss in Ukraine. In this respect, the Russian Federation is concerned about the rights of the Russian-speaking population in addition to their safety, and this issue will rank high on Russia’s agenda.
Secondly, Russia aims at rebuilding its economic ties with Ukraine, since Moscow is still ...
... think of a Truth and Reconciliation Commission for Donbas, reporting live on TV in Ukraine and Russia with an annual report. More than twenty countries have done this successfully in the past.
However, the problem of reconciliation is not limited to Donbass only. Both Russia and Ukraine today lack the know-how for true reconciliation, which had been mustered by Austria and Italy after World War II. Let us all learn from the American philosopher Eric Hoffer who said, “A war is only won after you have turned your enemy into a ...
... for the other actors — to move ahead without “loosing the face”, and at the same time to achieve concreet goals.
The Donbass issue is less strategically and politically important for Russia — in any scenario (from violent to an peaceful one) Russia will not loose the game dramatically. For the Ukraine the costs of the current negotiations on Donbass are far more valuable. Crimea is of far more important for Russia strategically and politically, that is why the Ukrainian side now is
trying
to rise the costs and to combine the Donbass and Crimea issues in the negotiation process.
In general ...
... President Trump had inappropriately extended a quid-pro-quo to President Zelenskiy involving American military aid in exchange for Ukraine’s help in investigating possible wrongdoing by Former Vice President Joe Biden and his son, Hunter Biden.
Ivan Timofeev,... ... collectively for pro-Ukrainian policies. That fact alone might explain the lack of thought diversity on display. Absent of any pro-Russian lobby in the United States, the pro-Ukraine lobby has been able to monopolize Congress and coalesce support around its ...
... of French diplomacy cannot influence progress in implementing the Minsk Agreements. The keys to resolving the conflict in Donbass are primarily held by Kiev and Moscow. That said, Macron was the first European leader to feel a change in the nature of Russian-Ukrainian relations and to try to use this new trend. The change of power in Kiev opened a narrow window of opportunity for cautious movement forward on Donbass. The new president of Ukraine intends to resolve the issue. His initiatives have received cautious support in Moscow. As a result, the sides achieved a modest but tangible result by exchanging large groups of detainees. Importantly, the latter included well-known figures and ...
... report “Rebels without a Cause: Russia’s Proxies in Eastern Ukraine”.
On September 6, 2019, RIAC hosted an expert seminar and the presentation of the International Crisis Group report “
Rebels without a Cause: Russia’s Proxies in Eastern Ukraine
”.
The event was attended by the authors of the report, as well as representatives of Russian expert community to discuss current issues regarding analysis and assessment of the crisis settlement process in Donbass.
... “post-Soviet” (post-revolutionary) civilizational transit of both countries; and because any change for the better presupposes efforts on both sides, not just one of them.
Aleksandr Levchenkov:
It is still too early to talk about radical changes in Russia–Ukraine relations. First, during his electoral campaign, V. Zelensky himself repeatedly failed to demonstrate a fundamental agenda for developing relations with Russia. Many of his statements are contradictory. For instance, on the one hand, he spoke about his desire to stop the bloodshed in Donbass, restore the infrastructure destroyed during his predecessor’s tenure and hold talks with the Russian president. On the other hand, the new leader said he would refuse to grant special status to the uncontrolled territories and that granting ...
