... Russia’s Southern Flank”, RIAC Blog, December 18, 2014. /en/blogs/igor_delanoe/?id_4=1588
[3] The B-261 Novorossiysk and the B-237 Rostov-Na-Donu. For a complete picture of the modernization plan of the Black Sea Fleet, read Igor Delanoe, “Russia’s Plans for Crimea: the Black Sea Fleet”, RIAC Blog, July 23, 2014. /en/blogs/igor_delanoe/?id_4=1305
[4] “Top NATO general: Russians starting to build air defense bubble over Syria”, The Washington Post, September 29, 2015.
[5] SIPRI Military Expenditures ...
... on Ukraine’s federalisation’, whatever that means — a nation-wide referendum on the matter has already been offered by Kiev. Annexing large chunks of its southwestern neighbour would come at an enormous cost to Russia, not only because of the West’s potentially tough response, but, primarily, in material terms — while popular support for the move is less than evident. In essence, a repetition of the Crimean scenario is possible, but unlikely.
The most likely outcome is far-reaching regional autonomy, perhaps in the context of the federalisation of the state. But no-one knows how, or when, these moves should take place or who should initiate them....
... will be worth it.
Because, even if the Ukrainian conflict is contained in its current state, Europe’s political and security landscape has been arbitrarily re-written, understandably worrying the EU member states of East Central Europe. The Crimean adventure, seasoned with a large amount of the usual disinformation, has occasioned a huge rise in Putin’s popularity — much like the last time in Georgia. He now has the recipe.
But the situation in Ukraine is bound to escalate. It will not come to a Cold War — but it looks like ...
