... $461 mln (1
st
Arab trade partner for Syria/3
rd
globally)
Islamic banking and insurance projects in Syria (2020: 5
th
in the GCC/7
th
among the Arab states)
Table 1. Designed by Matveev I.A. based on open sources and data received from a Syrian consulting ... ... trilateral formats of cooperation with Russia and Syria, this may change in the future in light of the influence exerted by Iran and Turkey.
For instance, the Emiratis may benefit from
the Russian “security matrix”
, which provides Russian security guarantees ...
... Euro-Atlantic region is not entirely correct, since over recent years, the economic, political and ideological influence of other important actors in the region, including new ones, has grown significantly. These actors are primarily China, but also Turkey and several Middle Eastern states.
The presence of many actors with diverging interests in the fragmented post-conflict Balkan space demonstrates that the situation in the region would be more properly assessed not as part of the "Russia–West" ...
... build an effective security architecture based on the principle of inclusiveness. Russia and Turkey seek to maintain working relations with all the regional powers. Regional affairs in 2017 were affected by the decision of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) to isolate Qatar with a blockade. While Russia chose not to interfere in this regional conflict, Turkey largely sided with Qatar. Ankara’s close relations with Doha urged it to deploy troops in Qatar, which also hosts the Al Udeid Air Base- the largest U.S. military installation in the region [
46
]. The GCC-Qatar dispute remains unresolved,...
... challenge to Riyadh’s authority. The possibility of Qatar joining this duo threatened Saudi Arabia’s leading role in the GCC, which could split the pact into two triads.
In light of the above, it is quite clear that the campaign against Qatar could ... ... credibility would suffer considerably if it let another power shift happen in the country without interfering. The potential of Turkey
deploying troops
to Qatar could mitigate the threat of a military coup or any other use of hard power by the Saudis or ...
... efforts fail. The threat of a more serious confrontation might arise, possibly leading to a smooth transition of power in the emirate.
Scenario three: with confrontation intensifying, Qatar would resort to aggressive measures, disaffiliating from the GCC and would face further rapprochement with Turkey and Iran. In this case, Qatar’s policies on Syria might undergo certain changes, whereupon Doha is likely to join the Astana troika, turning it into a quartet.
Scenario four: the conflict escalates abruptly, giving rise to a military confrontation ...
