... region, like in many other parts of the world. The evident lack of trust between Moscow and Western capitals might complicate many regional problems, including resurrecting the Iranian JCPOA, maritime security arrangements in the Gulf, deconflicting in Syria, and multilateral mechanisms for dealing with the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. If Russia, alongside China, the U.S., and the EU, approaches the MENA security problems as a zero-sum game, this is likely to further complicate any progress in addressing security challenges in the MENA region. Unfortunately, it seems likely that the region will continue to be a venue for geopolitical great power ...
... significant ups or downs in these relations have produced direct and visible implications for the Russian posture in the Eastern Mediterranean. For example, it would not be an over-exaggeration to argue that the initial Russian military engagement in Syria in the autumn of 2015 had a significant ‘pedagogical’ dimension—after a spectacular Western failure in Libya and a less than impressive US performance in Iraq, Vladimir Putin clearly intended to teach the West how to ‘fix’ a MENA country. Particularly in the aftermath of the acute crisis in and around Ukraine, it was very important for the Kremlin to demonstrate that in the Eastern Mediterranean Russia could become not a part of the problem, but rather a part of the solution....
... pressed to choose, Russia should side more with Egypt and the UAE, especially since the latter can open doors for Russia in other regions if their partnership reaches the strategic level through cooperation here and elsewhere.
Levant: Resolving the War in Syria
Russia must somehow resolve the Syrian dilemma, ideally by pairing an Iranian withdrawal with the nuclear deal, sanctions relief for Syria, and some form of decentralization that is acceptable to Damascus. Moscow must also ensure that Turkish influence ...
... dependence on Eastern Eurasia (China).
It is yet to be articulated and—perhaps—is not consciously understood even by most Russian policymakers as it began in a somewhat
ad hoc
fashion after the country’s decisive anti-terrorist intervention in Syria in 2015. What is therefore needed is a clear understanding of what is happening in this broad swath of geostrategic space with a special attention paid to the challenges, opportunities and narrative engagement for optimizing Russia’s grand strategy ...
...
When making a future study, it is important to look for some long-term structures, to get a clearer focus on the variables. Thus, we see that the Middle East, as here defined, has crystallized into two parts: A
North
, consisting of Turkey, Iran, and Syria with Russia’s input, and including Iraq which is becoming increasingly self-conscious in its balanced cooperation with two antagonists: Iran and the US. The US works with Kurdish provinces in this North, but generally, the US position in the North ...
... with the involvement of other countries in the region, including Iran and Iraq.
Following the events of 2015–2017, both Russia and Turkey have become inalienable participants in the process of political settlement and post-conflict reconstruction in Syria. Considering the enormous amount of money needed to revive the country as well as the limited resources of Moscow and Ankara, the parties are able to interact on the way to a pragmatic solution amenable to both.
Regional Platforms and Security Architecture Systems
Timur Makhmutov, Ruslan Mamedov:
Proposals on Building a Regional Security System in West Asia and North Africa
The Russian military doctrine states that one of the main threats ...
On September 14, 2013, Russia and the USA seem to have agreed on specific terms of Syria's disarmament. The decision was preceded by escalation of tensions between the two as a result of America's ambition to launch strikes against Assad's military facilities. But to anyone who knows recent history of U.S. military ...
... Iran as well as to Russia and China behind it. Right now, Syria pays a proxy-war price for that: This multi-religious country of subtle ancient cultural layers may end up entirely combusted, thereby creating a dangerous security vacuum in the heart of MENA. Or to use the words of frustration of the senior French diplomat who recently told me in Brussels: “we have to demonize and quickly delegitimize the legitimate Syrian government, and topple al-Assad in order to convince Israel not to bomb Iran…”
“Western national interests will no longer determine the moral and political impulses of today’s global community… Whatsoever the ...
