... Schmitt’s state of exception here. Moreover, the president is not suspending the activities of the legislative assembly forever—but only for a month. This by no means constitutes a usurpation of power.
All this allows us to offer a number of possible scenarios.
Scenario 1
: Chaos. Concentration of power in the hands of the president brings about hardly any improvements in the situation. High-profile corruption cases are seen as an instrument of settling scores within the political elites, while the ...
RIAC and the Middle East Directions Programme of the EUI Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies Report
RIAC and the Middle East Directions Programme of the EUI Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies Report
2020 witnessed the peak of military tensions between the US and Iran since the conclusion of the tanker-war in 1987. The Trump administration’s maximum pressure campaign and Iran’s resistance/retaliation policy have worked to generate collision points one after another. Despite both sides’...
... disagreements in the coming decade. But the two sides can come to a pragmatic partnership that safeguards peace and stability in Europe. This is the main finding of the EUREN scenario-building process, conducted between February and September 2020. Four scenarios were developed:
1. A "
Cold Partnership
" in a multipolar world, where Russia and the EU ultimately return to extensive cooperation on issues such as climate change, digitalisation and visa liberalisation, while still facing major ...
On June 16, 2020, the British Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) hosted an online presentation of scenarios for Russia’s future beyond 2024
On June 16, 2020, the British Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) hosted an online presentation of
scenarios
for Russia’s future beyond 2024. A set of scenarios was the result of cooperation of a group ...
Policy Brief #27 / 2020
Policy Brief #27 / 2020
Executive Summary
— The report asesses the risks of sanctions against Russia over the year.
— By 2020, the use of sanctions against Russia had gained much more stability compared to previous years. The damage caused by the new restrictive measures can be considered limited. The key issue is whether the situation in the coming year will remain stable?
— Given the scale of the Russian economy, the current sanctions are unlikely to derail it. However...
On February 16, 2020, a session of Munich Security Conference discussed scenarios of Russia's development beyond 2024. The work of a group of experts from Russia, the United Kingdom, Austria, Germany, Latvia, and the United States throughout 2019 resulted in this document.
On February 16, 2020, a session of Munich Security ...
On September 5–6, 2019, in Vienna, FES Regional Office for Cooperation and Peace in Europe held the second closed scenario forecasting seminar “Looking beyond the Horizon of 2024” on the long-term future of Russia.
On September 5–6, 2019, in Vienna, FES Regional Office for Cooperation and Peace in Europe held the second closed scenario forecasting seminar “Looking beyond the Horizon of 2024” on the long-term future of Russia.
An international group of experts from Austria, Germany, the United...
... becoming increasingly autonomous.
The developments are a nontrivial challenge for Russia’s foreign policy. They are also generating a series of purely research questions. For instance, what will the configuration of the world order be in the future? What scenarios can be expected? How to adapt or how to shape a desired alternative? Answering these will be of extreme importance for transforming Russia’s doctrinal attitudes.
The main problem is that Russia’s prevalent multipolar concept took shape in ...
... Russians.
The attitude of the Russian political elite toward the election campaign in Ukraine also varies from neutral to a sceptical one, as I will further illustrate in this article.
What does Moscow want?
Andrey Kortunov:
Russia and Ukraine: Four Scenarios for the Future
The overall expectation is that Russia is going to intervene in Ukrainian elections and push for a more pro-Russian candidate. This strategy was used for the first time in 2004 during the “Orange Revolution” and proved its ...
On March 21–22, 2019, Berlin Center for East European and International Studies (ZOiS) held a scenario forecasting seminar “Looking beyond the Horizon of 2024” on the long-term future of Russia.
On March 21–22, 2019, Berlin Center for East European and International Studies (ZOiS) held a scenario forecasting seminar “Looking beyond the Horizon of 2024” on the long-term future of Russia.
An international group of experts from Germany, the United Kingdom, the United States, and Russia took part in...
