... "Forgetting the primacy of population issues is a major mistake in thinking that generates numerous errors of global importance."
[1]
Before taking into consideration the current situation, we should first take a look at history and analyze how demography and migration have advanced Russian-Georgian relations in years prior, since he who knows the past has a better command of the present.
Long-term processes of migration between Russia and its near abroad can be divided into three periods.
The 18th – Early 20th Centuries: the ...
... the President of the Russian Federation “On Measures to Provide Assistance to Compatriots Abroad in Voluntary Resettlement to the Russian Federation, July 22, 2006.
12
. A. Vishnevsky, “Will Central Asians and Compatriots be able to Repair Russia’s Demography?” TsentrAzia, May 20 2009; V. Yelizarov and A. Vishnevsky, Interview for RIA Novosti, February 2010
13
. See, for example: K. Amelyushkun, “Who are you, Russian Compatriot?” Russkaya linia Portal, October2, 2008.
14
. Excerpts ...
....
Figure 1.
The number of women aged 18-34 and 25-34 and seniors – actual and the FSS average forecast, 1970–2030
Source
: . Demographic Forecast 2030. URL:
http://www.gks.ru/wps/wcm/connect/rosstat_main/rosstat/ru/statistics/population/demography/index.html#
With the number of births falling and the number of deaths rising, the figures will move further apart, increasing the seemingly narrowed gap in the
Russian cross
(see
Fig. 2
).
Figure 2.
The number of births and deaths in Russia – actual in 1960-2010 and the FSS high-case and medium-case forecasts, in thousand
Source
: Demographic Yearbook of Russia 2009. Moscow, 2009. Table 8.5
Today, this ...
... and increasingly regulated. A reduction in registered marriages, the increase in divorce and cohabitation, the rise in the average marriage age (in developed countries: 30 or older), a significantly
greater share of children born out of wedlock
(in Russia in 2010 – every fourth child and every second in some countries) all combine to indicate the opposite. In demography these processes are called the
second demographic transition
. In many ways they result from the major expansion of marital, sexual and reproductive behavioral autonomy in modern society.
What Will Happen to Fertility?
Photo: blog.gmfus.org
...
