... discussion on the details of this approach. The difficulty is that neither humanitarian convoys nor the military of Syria, Russia, Turkey or the United States will be protected from provocations by terrorists. Although Turkey has close relations in Idlib with a number of anti-government Syrian groups affiliated with the so-called “Syrian National Army”, these are weak compared with HTS. This fact has compelled Turkey to not actively oppose HTS. Recently, HTS has re-energised itself and is putting pressure on a number of smaller Idlib groups. The latest big news is connected with a native of the former Soviet Union. According to the Directorate-4 Telegram channel,...
.... During the last month HTS had expanded its territories, almost destroyed “Huras-ad-Din”, and cut off the communication routes between Afrin and Idlib. Most recently, the former "Al-Nusra", without a fight, established control overthe Idlib city of Maarrat al-Nu'man.
According to Hassan Rouhani, HTS has captured "up to 90% of the territory of the region." In response, Turkey sent additional manpower and military equipment to its provincial observation posts. In the meantime, the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) is deploying its heavy artillery and military forces from the south.
Turkey, to put it mildly, is not delighted with ...
... the future of the rest parts of the province is in doubt. Terrorists from Hayat al-Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) who control about half of Idlib reject negotiations with Ankara and will not to give up weapons — the key condition for the existence of Russia-Turkey deal. To prolong the security in Idlib and keep refuge crisis away Ankara is forced to withdraw HTS from DMZ and then from the whole province, either on HTS’s own will or by force. If Ankara fails to do that, Assad supported by Russian air forces and Iranian proxies will renew the military operation.
The second issue limiting EU’s willingness ...
... press for the Province of Idlib to gradually turn into a Turkish “protectorate,” as happened in the regions of Northern Aleppo, which fell under the country’s “security umbrella” following the Euphrates Shield and Olive Branch operations.
Turkey consistently works to undermine the standing of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) that in early 2017 subsumed Jabhat al-Nusra (Jabhat Fatah al-Sham) in Idlib. In summer 2017, the large group Harakat Nour al-Din al-Zenki split from the HTS. The presence of Harakat Nour al-Din al-Zenki had made it possible to claim that the transformation of Jabhat Fatah al-Sham into Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham was not another ...
