... Tomorrow’s Syria and What We Can Do To Avoid Them
Delaying the search for a viable solution to this problem and the strengthening of HTS gradually convinces Rouhani and Putin of the futility of the “Sochi deal” and the DMZ, which Ankara is unable to create and enforce for almost half a year. If it was not for Erdogan’s opposition, the SAA with the help of Quds Force, Hezbollah and the Russian Aerospace Forces, in all likelihood, would have long since destroyed the terrorists.
Obviously, “behind the scenes” ...
... established, the future of the rest parts of the province is in doubt. Terrorists from Hayat al-Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) who control about half of Idlib reject negotiations with Ankara and will not to give up weapons — the key condition for the existence of Russia-Turkey deal. To prolong the security in Idlib and keep refuge crisis away Ankara is forced to withdraw HTS from DMZ and then from the whole province, either on HTS’s own will or by force. If Ankara fails to do that, Assad supported by Russian air forces and Iranian proxies will renew the military operation.
The second issue limiting EU’s willingness to aid ...