... 2023
Working Paper No.76 / 2023
The following working paper examines the current state of security in the Baltic region. It has become clear that there is no going back to the pre-Ukraine crisis balance of power structure. NATO’s expansion into Sweden and Finland can radically transform the political and security landscape in the Baltic region and destroy the established forms of cooperation these states have with Russia. This paper covers: risks and opportunities states face by engaging with Russia in the Baltic region; the changes in the region’s security configuration and their implications for Russia; the position of the Baltic states on the Ukraine crisis ...
... plans to increase to almost twice as much as Russia’s expenditures. Ukraine has received at least US$ 75 billion of weapons, even exhausting NATO budgets and depleting arsenals which, one would think, implies a reduction in security. Add a re-armed Sweden and Finland and we shall see Russia’s military expenditures move towards perhas 4% of NATO’s expenditures or less—and still be called a formidable threat.
Decision-makers have left the realm of the rational factural analysis, perceptions and interpretations. And they would ...
... International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) and the European Leadership Network (ELN) discussed the implications of possible Sweden and Finland membership in NATO for global and European security, the risks of incidents in the Baltic Sea region and the possibilities ... ... the prospects for multilateral cooperation in the Arctic in the context of NATO expansion and the aggravated relations between Russia and the collective West, as well as a number of other issues.
.... The decisiveness of the allies and the texts of official documents and statements, at first glance, make NATO look like a locomotive going towards its goal.
At the same time, no new fundamental operational decisions were made regarding Russia. The Russia-NATO Founding Act remained de jure untouched, the formulas for Sweden and Finland to join the alliance remain open, the prospects and models of interaction with partners in the post-Soviet space are even more open. This means that at the regional level, the Euro-Atlantic train moves “only where the track has been laid” ...
... membership for Sweden and Finland.
The event was attended by Igor Ivanov, RIAC President; Andrey Kortunov, RIAC Director General; Ivan Timofeev, RIAC Director of Programs; Antti Helantera, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the Republic of Finland in the Russian Federation; Malena Mard, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of Sweden to Russia, as well as RIAC members and experts.
Which trends seen in the West reflect Finland’s and Sweden’s possible entry into NATO
Much has been said and written about the likely consequences of Finland and Sweden joining NATO. A legion of analysts have already assessed the changing balance of power in the Baltic Sea, the new situation on the long Finnish-Russian land border as well as the possible implications of such NATO’s expansion for the Arctic. Experts are actively discussing the modalities of Helsinki’s and Stockholm’s practical inclusion in the bloc’s current initiatives and upcoming plans,...
... call for the abandonment of the international status of the Åland Islands as a demilitarized zone, a status which it has held since 1856. The islands, like the whole of Finland, became part of Russia under the 1809 Treaty of Fredrikshamn. Unlike Russia, Sweden made repeated attempts to take the islands away from Finland, arguing that they had always belonged to Sweden and that they had been handed over to Russia in 1809 as a separate province, rather than as part of Finland. The Swedish side urged Finland to agree to a referendum among the predominantly Swedish ...
... consensus by the ministerial session of the Arctic Council involving the foreign ministers of five Northern European countries, Russia, the USA and Canada in Kiruna in May 2013, emphasised that the member-countries’ efforts were focused on the “further ... ... in the region. This is not to say that those countries do not include political forces that are ready to support the entry of Finland and Sweden into NATO and to help these states become deeply integrated into the military and political structures of the North Atlantic ...
