The bottom line is that the costs far outweigh the benefits, which is what underlies our bleak assessment of the current scenario
Most experts, both in Russia and abroad, thought it was extremely unlikely and implausible that Russia would launch a full-scale military operation in Ukraine. Allegations that Moscow was preparing for something like this were laughed off, with this being labeled as another Russophobic campaign pushed by propagandists and radicals. However, it turned out on February...
... desperately tied to directly or indirectly revise the Minsk II Agreement signed on February 12, 2015, which states that the parties to the conflict are not Russia and Ukraine, but rather Kiev on the one hand and the Donetsk and Luhansk people’s republics (DPR and LPR) on the other. Had the Ukrainian side succeeded during the discussions about the peacekeeping mission in having Russia’s status in the conflict changed to that of an acknowledged direct participant in the conflict, then Kiev would have had ...
... military actions under the present conditions are a low-risk affair. The Donbass self-defense forces are highly unlikely to launch major counter-offensives like they did near Ilovaisk or Debaltsevo. Therefore, Ukraine is free to test the strength of the DPR and LPR defenses and achieve small, if visible, successes like occupying demilitarized areas. Sabotage attacks against influential figures in the two republics also will go unanswered. The rebels will hardly come up with an adequate response. But ...