... Armenian-Azerbaijani settlement in late 2021, European Council President Charles Michel and French President Emmanuel Macron twice
called
Russian leader Vladimir Putin in a bid to find common ground between EU interests and the Sochi-Moscow Russia-Azerbaijan-Armenia negotiating format.
Andrey Petrov:
Peace in South Caucasus: What Awaits Russia in Armenia?
The beginning of Russia’s military operation in Ukraine overhauled this balance. First of all, the positions of Russia and the West have become holistic. There is no room left for nuances or shades. That ...
... level out the regional power balance. Today, the presence of non-regional actors, such as Israel and Pakistan, on the side of Azerbaijan, which have confrontational or competitive relations with Iran, cement power imbalances. Therefore, if India's involvement in the region, as well as its rapprochement with Armenia, is brewing these imbalances, Iran may positively welcome this prospect.
Overall, India and Iran's interests in the South Caucasus are largely complementary, both in terms of developing communication and increasing Iran's role, as well as levelling ...
... Armenian-Azerbaijani and Armenian-Turkish borders have not been opened yet, but these bilateral issues do not constitute a region-wide problem. Even if not de jure, then at least de facto, South Caucasus is now a peaceful region, once again.
Sergey Markedonov:
Armenian-Azerbaijani Conflict: Last Chapter or More to Come?
Peace in South Caucasus is what Russia sought for three decades, but it was restored at a price—a temporary ratcheting up of anti-Russian tendencies in Armenia. Yet, it is beyond any doubt a geopolitical and geo-economic gain or dividend in Russia’s foreign ...
... innovative businesses.
Opportunities
Under-explored markets such as renewable energy, biological agriculture and high-tech;
Affordable and skilled labour resources available;
Possible regional cooperation between the three main countries - Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan - instead of seeking different alliances outside the South Caucasus
Threats
Remaining ethnic tensions (internal and external) and the constraint of continuous political repetition compulsion regarding the de facto autonomous territories;
Laissez-faire the corruption and cronyism at all levels of the ...
... North Caucasus, the war of Russia and Turkey, etc. Another defrosting mechanism can be a regional war, which arose initially due to the escalation in Nagorno-Karabakh — Turkey, Russia and, less likely, Iran may be involved into a full-scale war of Armenia and Azerbaijan. This may also involve Georgia in these catastrophic processes. In this sense, the key to peace in the South Caucasus lies in Nagorno-Karabakh. The settlement or at least a deep freeze of this conflict can mitigate most of the regional military risks.
1
. Military Balance 2018. IISS. 2018. p. 187
2
. Ibid
3
. Ibid
4
. Ibid
5
. В ожидании бури: ...
... low-performing assets.
Geopolitical risks
EPA/SONG FULAI/Vostock Photo
Anna Tikhonova:
Sweet-and-Sour Sino-Russian Gas Project
Cooperation between the EU and the EEU in South Caucasus faces many geopolitical challenges and obstacles.
Firstly, the region of the South Caucasus remains very unstable because of
two frozen conflicts and territorial disputes
. The conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan has seen an escalation over the last year: in 2015 clashes on borders claimed the lives of 90 Azeri soldiers
[25]
. Both parties violated the existing ceasefire and used heavy weapons for the first time since 1994 when the ceasefire treaty ...
