Future of Europe And Demographic Challenges: Dialectics And Problematic
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1. Introduction |
| The challenges associated with demographic developments and migration flows are among the most important trends that will determine Europe's future. This will have repercussions that will result in an integrated system of radical changes in the level of identity of European societies and the stability of European countries. Therefore, there is a wide range of demographic pressures that will lead to a re-understanding of reality and reshaping of the balance of power on the European continent. Hence, it is impossible to understand Europe's current reality, and it be difficult to read its future complexities away from the problematic associated with demography and migration. Where, many European demographic estimates seem dangerous and raise key strategic questions. Accordingly, and based on how the challenges of demography and migration affect, and their overlap with the political, security, economic, legal, cultural and environmental dimensions, many controversial questions, problematic and dialectics can be raised. |
2. The Dialectic of the Lack of Credibility of Predictions. |
| Demographic studies raise uncertainty to the point of confusion, which raises questions about many basic demographic facts that are not supported by confirmatory scientific evidence. Also, since most of the theoretical assumptions about demographic behavior seem unfit to understand and provide convincing explanations for the dynamics of demographic developments, with the new implications on the issue of migration, the theoretical framework becomes more complex and open to a variety of problematic, given the intrinsic uncertainty of future population dynamics[1].Furthermore, the potential for rapid and radical change, even though the form it takes is unknown, raises fundamental questions about the effectiveness of planning and preparedness. Numbers themselves are not the task. The numbers in the end are deaf, but the most important and dangerous is what these numbers reveal, and the implications. In this context, there are many doubts about whether there is a sustainable and reliable demographic analysis in the EU[2]? As well, there are serious question marks about absence of honest studies based on the expectation of negative scenarios, both cultural and political, and the development of plans and alternative solutions to address them in the future[3]? |
3- Dialectic of the Emerging Immigration State and Non-classic European Security. |
| Since 2015, the crisis around the issue of migration in Europe has constituted an unprecedented shift in the history of European integration. The impact of migration on european societies is very complex, there is therefore a need to develop new approaches in order to encourage the finding of European answers to these challenges. Hence, migration with its cultural, security, political and environmental dimensions should be studied through a proactive and dynamic methodology[4]. In this context, there are many problematics that must be addressed: • Should immigration be considered an issue of European cultural security? Or are they subject to economic competition rules? Does the flow of immigrants represent a threat for the sovereign institutions and to the principle of citizenship in Europe? • If demographic imbalance (related to the aging dilemma) can only be rebalanced through a higher level of migration than European countries find politically acceptable, Are the Europeans willing to bear the consequences of such a strategic choice for their cultural security and future? Also, in case credibility of theories and figures predicting the decline in fertility rates in developing countries is confirmed: What may the European countries find as solutions for their deteriorating demographic reality, if its solutions depend primarily on increasing the proportion of immigrants from developing countries ? • Are there strategic plans to address the likelihood of a repeat migration crisis similar to 2015? For example, how can Spain deal with immigration problems if Morocco decides to open its border with Spain to immigrants as a result of a political dispute between the two countries, instability within Morocco or due to climatic and environmental conditions? • What are the appropriate European standards on how to deal with humanitarian asylum issues, especially those related to environmental refuge standards? Does Europe need a centralized system of migration[5]? Should environmental migration be seen as a threat to the European National Security? Is there a unified European-level strategy that can cope with the consequences of future environmental migration? |
4- Dialectical Relationship Between Political and Economic Options: Is the European Economic Model Demographically And Politically Sustainable?. |
| Undoubtedly, the very serious implications of demographic and migration issues require new ways of thinking. Where, many of the threats in Europe have become clear that they can not be understood without a new type of political analysis. Thus, This logic opens the door wide to discuss the dialectic relationship between political choices and economic interests. When interests overlap between political power, the capitalist class, bureaucratic institutions and and academic research institutions, there will be little room for action. Therefore, one must ask how to approach the problematic relationship between power and capital in Europe. Thus, given the importance of monetary vision, it can be argued that the dialectic of the relationship between the demographic problems and complexities of the interdependence between politics, economics and knowledge has become an accurate reflection of the tensions inherent in Europe's future[6]. Accordingly, the following problematic must be asked: • Is focusing only on economic vision provides a solid foundation for protecting the future of Europe? Or is that economic vision primarily a fundamental part of the causes of the European dilemma? • Where economic interests limits begin and where end? And Why are most political and academic concerns dealing with demography and migration issues based on more economically oriented analyzes than strategic ones at the political, cultural and security levels[7]? |
5. The Dialectic of European Cultural Demographic Security. |
| One of the most serious challenges facing the European continent is the vast change in the demographic structure which raises questions about the problems of cultural security and the future of Europe. Where Europe suffers from the phenomenon of aging and the increased risk of migration flows, which will bring about very dangerous strategic changes and foreshadowing the transformation of European societies into disjointed societies that lack any commonality between them[8]. Thus it becomes clear that there is a need for ideas and political and cultural options, instead of relying solely on economic options and ideas. Therefore, it can be said that culture has become an influencing factor in developing geopolitical strategies[9]. Hence, there is an urgent need for new ideas related to the problematic of the relationship between European cultural security and the challenges of demography and migration[10]. Also, when confronting demographic challenges, it should be borne in mind that it is the result of broader and more comprehensive cultural factors and actions than mere decisions that political leaders in European countries will make. Hence, many questions will remain on how to re-create culture and politics in the wake of these demographic patterns: - Where are the limits of European cultural demographic security? How Europe can reconcile continuity in adopting the principles of a free market economy , on the contrary, at the political level, the European continent should be culturally closed to itself[11]? - Is it possible to ensure that some foreign countries do not exploit these minorities or the European cultural reality (through cultural, religious or political interests, or even by economic interests) to undermine European national security and destabilize? Is there a strategic European plan to counter attempt to interfere in the continent's internal affairs, by exploiting realities resulting from immigration and the policies multiculturalism[12]? - Can Europe find a way to maintain demographic balance without resorting to the conservative religious renewal that the new demography is feared to bring with it (religious awakening), considering that is the most vital strategic alternative[13]? When considering the future of Europe, we must take into account the apparent importance of cultural patterns as an influential factor in European politics, which providing a different analytical vision focusing on cultural dimensions[14]. In this context, it is important to emphasize how much importance should be given to cultural dimensions when formulating and developing strategic policies on the challenges of demography and migration. Somewhere we must recognize that cultural dimensions often outweigh their strategic impact on economic interests[15]. |
6- The Dialectic of How Face the Political and Cultural Divisions Associated With Challenges of the Demography and Immigration. |
| Ultimately, all these dialectics in the thesis lead us to raise fundamental political and intellectual dialectic about the very essence of the EU's existence and the future of Europe. It can be concluded conclusively that the European project in general (with the emergence of the migration crisis in 2015) is in danger. Not to mention, the negative consequences of the UK leaving the EU (Brexit). In addition to changing the balance of power at the level of international relations. Therefore, it must be acknowledged that these concerns are available and justifiable, there are many facts that are not hopeful as the social, political and cultural gap widens within Europe. Mainstream traditional political parties are breaking down, collapsing and losing their effectiveness and credibility day after day across the Continent. The Eurosceptic movements (Anti-EU and all immigration and multicultural policies) are on the rise and gaining in popularity in their countries (One of the most recent examples in this context is the success of the extreme right in Portugal in obtaining 12 percent of the vote in the presidential elections held at the end of January 2021), and have become more influential at the level of the European Parliament and EU institutions[16]. All of these challenges raise a question mark as to whether Europe is heading towards a cliff, collapse and division, or is this reality just bumps and instantaneous difficulties that will not affect the future process of European integration. This is what we can conclude by trying to find answers to the following problematic: • Will the direct confrontation between supporters and opponents of migration policies change many of the strategic equations and political balances within Europe in the future[17]? • Is Europe in an urgent need to develop strategies to alleviate cultural concerns, in order to counter the wars of ideas that are currently taking place on the continent? • How will political leaders and bureaucratic elites face the challenges, including how to deal with the popular and political wave that opposes the EU, immigration policies and multiculturalism? In order for Europeans to be as prepared as possible for the future, leaders need to think broadly and consider the worst that could happen. Hence, such specific dialectics and problematics can offer early warnings about the deeper geopolitical trends underway or what might happen in the future, which are directly linked to the challenges of demography and migration. But questions about ability: Whether Europeans can find solutions to to all these challenges remain incomplete, where the questions of ability remain incomplete without the question of will? |
| 7. Conclusion |
Declining birth rates,mass immigration, disappointing failure of multiculturalism , and the lack of political leaders with a strategic vision, have come together to make Europeans unable to incapable of resisting their own comprehensive alteration as a society or states. And more dangerous than that, change is no longer what native European population are doing or what they are aspiring to, change is what is happening to them, and what is happening is the identity crisis or rather the lack thereof[18]. Based on this, it can be said that the study of demographic issues is the main entrance through which it is possible to perceive the current reality of Europe, and therefore its future destiny[19]. Thus, the implications of demographic and immigration issues go beyond classical concepts and open the door wide to problematic related to the nature of the relationship between politics, economy, culture, security, environment and law, all of which are related to interpreting the reality of Europe and reading its future[20]. To sum up, in view of new demographic situation, it is necessary to consider devising a new European vision that will be able to face these serious dialectics related to the challenges of demography and migration. Hence, it seems to have become clear that many of the current ideas and policies no longer keep pace with these challenges that Europe has never known before. But in this context, questions and dialectics about ability: whether Europeans can find solutions to all these challenges will remain incomplete, as the dialectics and questions of ability remain incomplete without the questions and dialectics of will? |
Footnotes: |
[1] Kenneth Gronbach,Others,"Upside: Profiting from the Profound Demographic Shifts Ahead", Amacon, U.S,2017,pp.229-256. |
[2] Not to mention the need for problematic treatment: limitations on the data available? |
[3] Not to mention that many of future data are based on an unfavorable positive outlook, uncertain and doubtful. See: Report,"Security Outlook 2030: Three Alternative Scenarios",World Economic Forum, Switzerland, 2019.. Also:Report,"State of World Population 2018-The Power of Choice: Reproductive Rights and the Demographic Transition",United Nations, NY ,2018, p.7. Also, Report,"World Population Ageing 2017",United Nations,NY,2017,p.3+(10-11).Also Report: Carolin Nerlich, "The 2018 Ageing Report: Population Ageing Poses Tough Fiscal Challenges", European Central Bank (ECB), Germany, 2018. |
[4] Thomas Gomart, Marc Hecker ,"European Elections 2019: Structuring the Debate", French Institute of International Relations,France, February 2019,pp.23-26. Look: https:// ww wifri.org/ sites/default/files/atoms/files/gomart hecker et al european elect ions 2 0 1 9 e n g .pdf Accessed at 02-05-2020. |
[5] Anna Triandafyllidou,Ruby Gropas,"European Immigration:A Sourcebook", Routledge, London,2016, pp.377- 400. |
[6] Joan Wallach Scott,"Knowledge, Power, and Academic Freedom",Columbia University ,U.S,2019, pp.1-124. |
[7] Thomas Gomart, Marc Hecker ,"European Elections 2019: Structuring the Debate", French Institute International Relations, France, February 2019,pp.23-26. |
[8] All this could lead to separatism or radical reactions by the indigenous peoples of Europe, which is becoming more evident these days. |
[9] Especially with the emergence of a culture of logical fear and anxiety in Europe that the continent may lose its identity and security. |
[10] In this context, in spite of all the observations that can be directed towards ideas and theories associated with the reality of cultural demographic shifts, they remain a useful framework for analysis, which is not merely an academic debate but of great practical significance. This is because no any European country will be immune from the cultural challenges associated with the demographic issue. |
[11] Is Europe ready in the future to accept the idea of giving rights to minorities, whose cultural features are becoming more and more evident? Can maintain an independent identity for each of the minorities while ensuring their membership in the state? How much diversity can Europe endure in order to maintain its cohesion as a nation? |
[12] Christopher Deliso,"Migration,Terrorism,and Future of a Divided Europe:A Continent Transformed", Praeger,U.S,2017,pp.67-92. |
[13] And how can Europe address the cultural challenge associated with fertility industry issues(ie, scientific solutions to the demographic crisis) that will put European communities at risk of uncertainty as to whether this future demographic system will strengthen or further erode the European family? |
[14] We must recognize that it is no longer possible to find a practical and logical approach to European political reality without taking into account the influence of cultural and religious factors, which are ignored by many European political leaders, that will have a pivotal role in determining the future of Europe. See : CQ Researcher," Global Issues: Selections from CQ Researcher ",CQ Press, U.K , 2017,pp.261-284. |
[15] This cultural pattern should therefore be viewed in terms of the degree of change it represents, which introduces a new mechanism with cultural and political roots, which were not previously as clear as the present depth and clarity, which helps to understand the European reality and the future challenges of demography and migration. |
[16] Faisal Al Yafai ,"The far-right’s Influence in Europe is much Greater Than Its New EU Parliamentary Group Suggests", EURACTIV,Brussels, 27jun2019. Look :https://www .euractiv.com/section/eu-elections-2019opinion/the-far-rights-influence -in-europe-is -much-greater-than-its-new-eu-parliamentary-group-suggests/ 02-05-2020. |
[17] Alina Polyakova,"The Dark Side of European Integration: Social Foundations and Cultural Determinants of the Rise of Radical Right Movements in Contemporary Europe", Ibidem Press,U.S,2015,pp.(Conclusion). |
[18] Douglas Murray,"The Strange Death of Europe: Immigration, Identity, Islam", Bloomsbury Continuum, London, 2017,pp.284-338. |
[19] For example, demographic changes explain why the Arab Spring came and went, how China rose so meteorically, and why Britain voted for Brexit and America for Donald Trump. Thus, sweeping from Europe to the Americas, China, East Asia, the Middle East, and North Africa, Demographic changes are a panoramic view of the power and sheer importance of the impact of demographic changes, whether at the level of quantity or quality. See : Paul Morland,"The Human Tide: How Population Shaped the Modern World",Public Affairs,New York,2019,pp.255-282. |
[20] Understanding the demographic variables and their interrelated and interrelated effects in various fields is a very important axis, at least at level of the dialectical relationship between the problems of demography and migration, security, law, economy, culture, environment, scientific and technological developments...etc. Ohn Baylis,Steve Smith,Patricia Owens,"The Globalization of World Politics: An Introduction to International Relations",Oxford University Press,U.S, 2017,pp.480-528. |
