The 2016 Taiwanese Presidential Elections and Why They Matter

Moscow has been moving closer to Beijing in the last couple of years and making a concerted effort to “pivot to Asia” in light of Russia’s deteriorating relations with the West. While other powers in the Asia-Pacific region such as U.S. and Japan have had a strategic interest in cross-strait relations (i.e. relations between China and Taiwan), Russia has not involved itself in the matter, nor has it shown much interest in the affairs of the island nation. However, Taiwan should be considered geopolitically significant, especially amid growing tensions in East Asia. Eurasia Group founder Ian Bremmer even listed Taiwan as one of the top ten geopolitical risks in 2015.[i] In particular, many Asia watchers across the globe have been keeping their eye on the upcoming Taiwanese presidential and general elections on January 16, 2016. While Russia may not be directly affected by the outcomes of the elections half a year from now, if it truly wants to “pivot to Asia” and gain influence in the region it should be aware of the elections’ potential geopolitical consequences in the region.

 

Background

The issue of Taiwan has been controversial since the founding of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in 1949 and the subsequent transfer of the Republic of China (ROC) to Taiwan. Since then, the “one China policy” or similar policies were adopted by most countries such as the U.S. and the then-Soviet Union, which essentially only recognizes that there is only one China and that diplomatic relations with one meant ceasing relations with the other. Most countries replaced their official relations with the ROC/Taiwan with the PRC while maintaining economic and unofficial diplomatic relations with Taiwan. While Taiwan is not recognized as a country in many international organizations such as the UN and does not have many official bilateral diplomatic relations, it essentially functions as a de facto country, with its own economy, currency, government, legal system, etc. Starting with its democratization process in the 1980’s, Taiwan has also sought to create its own non-China identity by promoting the language and culture of its pre-ROC Taiwanese inhabitants, and has attempted to gain recognition as an independent country in many multilateral and bilateral forums. However, China views Taiwan as a renegade province and blocks all attempts for Taiwan to gain recognition. While tensions have always been high between the two sides, moves from the Taiwanese side in recent decades towards self-determination have provoked Beijing to threaten invasion should Taiwan declare independence (China currently has over 1,600 ballistic missiles pointed at Taiwan).[ii] Against this backdrop, the upcoming elections undoubtedly mark an important event that will test the peace of the region.

 

Status Quo or Pro-Independence Policies?

Unlike the past two presidential elections in 2008 and 2012 where it was fairly clear that Taiwan would have a president that favored the status quo and warming of ties with China, the 2016 elections are more likely to than previously to result in a win for the more pro-Taiwan candidate, Tsai Ing-wen, from the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). China and Taiwan saw a warming of political and economic relations over the past eight years under the presidency of Ma Ying-Jeou from the pro-reunification Kuomingtang (KMT) party, which assuaged not only Beijing’s fears but of others such as the U.S. and Japan who were nervous of growing tensions in the region. However, Ma and his party faced tough domestic criticism throughout his presidency with the public accusing him of selling out the will of the Taiwanese people to China. Public opinion in favor of the KMT deteriorated, culminating in a devastating KMT loss and a win for the DPP in last November’s local elections. The DPP is building political momentum and while it may still be too soon to tell, recent polls show that the public is tilting in Tsai’s favor (a June 29 Taiwan Indicators Survey Research poll shows that 47.7% of respondents support Tsai, 27.8% support her opponent Hung, and 24.5% were undecided)[iii], and if she does indeed win her presidency will have significant geopolitical consequences.

 

Potential Geopolitical Consequences

The victory of a DPP candidate will make Beijing extremely nervous. Beijing sent a stern warning to DPP shortly after Tsai announced her candidacy reminding the DPP that it should not push for Taiwanese independence.[iv] She also recently visited the U.S. in order to allay Washington’s fears that Taiwan may revert to its pro-independence stance and further destabilize the region. While Tsai has asserted that she will respect the status quo and no extreme moves toward Taiwanese independence will be taken, China will nonetheless be nervous given the track record of the DPP, particularly of Ma’s predecessor former President Chen Shui-bian, who “pushed the envelope” with many pro-independence initiatives during 2000-2008. Some of the tensest moments in cross-strait relations in recent years occurred during this time period. Though the DPP has taken a much more moderate stance since Chen’s tenure, Beijing remains alarmed at the possibility of the status quo being disrupted. Just recently, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) of China conducted joint air-sea military exercises in the waters close to Taiwanese territory, with analysts concluding that the PLA was practicing the invasion of Taiwan (though such drills are not out of the ordinary and have taken place in previous years).[v] Such an invasion, however, is very unlikely to occur in the short-term given that actual provocations will likely not be made on the Taiwanese side, and due to the deterrent effects of other actors such as the U.S. (which has an agreement with Taiwan to help defend the island in case it is attacked by China)[vi], and potentially Japan, which not only has a strong relationship with Taiwan but will also likely feel threatened that China is getting too close to its own borders and may disrupt its own sea lines of communication (Taiwan is only 732 km away from Okinawa, Japan). Then again, with China flexing its muscles in the South China Sea and escalating tensions with its neighbors, one cannot be so sure.

 

Moscow’s Options

Russia should consider the possible geopolitical ramifications as well as cascading effects of the Taiwanese elections on its own national security and economy. Russia considers Taiwan as a part of China, but maintains positive economic relations with Taiwan (in 2005, trade between Russia and Taiwan was valued at approximately 2.7 billion USD)[vii], as well as unofficial diplomatic relations (“representative offices” in Moscow and Taipei have facilitated economic and cultural relations since the early 1990s)[viii] [ix]. The potential increase in hostility between China and Taiwan would not only add to the already mounting tensions in the region overall, but should also make Russia acutely aware of its own defense capabilities of its own territories in its eastern flank. An escalation or disruption between the relations between any of the Asian countries may negatively affect Russia’s economic relations with parties to an evolving dispute. At the moment Russia remains neutral when it comes to territorial disputes in the South China Sea. Were something to happen in cross-strait relations, the way that Moscow responds, if at all, would depend on how seriously it takes its “pivot” to Asia. Will Moscow be supportive of Beijing in order to build on its reinvigorated relations, attempt to show leadership in the region by trying to maintain the balance of power, or continue to stay indifferent and out of the way?

 

 

 

Photo courtesy of NASA