Moving from a Zero-Sum to a Positive Sum Game: Can Georgia Provide the Blueprint for Regional Cooperation with both the EU and Russia

Russia and the European Union (EU) are currently engaged in a geopolitical struggle for control of the post-Soviet space.  While Russia is the current regional hegemon, the European Union and NATO have been trying to gain influence in what Russia refers to as its “near abroad.”  Russia has retaliated by influencing the states in its near abroad not to sign cooperation agreements with the EU, and instead cooperate with Russia by joining its Customs Union.

 

Russia has had a mixed record in convincing states in the region to deny EU efforts at wooing them away from the Russian sphere of influence.  Specifically, Russia was able to influence Ukraine to work closer with the Customs Union and not sign an association agreement with the EU, however, both Moldova and Georgia chose to pursue the EU over closer cooperation with Russia.

 

While the world's attention is focused on Ukraine and the protests over Ukraine's refusal to sign the association agreement with the European Union at the Vilnius Summit, little attention is being paid to the fact that Georgia initialed an association agreement with the EU at the Vilnius Summit.  While Ukraine was not able to cooperate with both Russia and the EU, Georgia finds itself in the unique position of creating a blueprint for cooperation with both Russia and the EU that would benefit all of the states involved.  Moreover, if this blueprint were to be developed by Russia, other states in the region could in turn follow Georgia's lead and learn how to turn a zero-sum game between the EU and Russia into a positive sum game for all of the states in the region.

 

Georgia's actions in signing the association agreement are sure not to please Russia, with whom Georgia has signaled an intent to improve relations.  Further, Georgia has shown an interest in pursuing closer cooperation with NATO, and has said that it wishes to join NATO.  NATO, in turn, has shown an interest in increased cooperation with Georgia.  Yet is possible that relations between Russia and Georgia not only won't deteriorate, but stand to improve even after Georgia's most recent actions toward the EU. 

 

Russian-Georgian relations have always been complex.  For centuries, Russia influenced the internal affairs of Georgia.  Even after Georgia gained its independence from the Soviet Union, Russian and Georgian relations were strained.  Specifically, Russia supported separatist republics in their bid for independence from Georgia.  Further, Russia sent peacekeeping troops to both Abkhazia and South Ossetia, thus granting de facto independence to the two regions.

 

In 2008, President Mikheil Saakashvili sent the Georgian Army to attack South Ossetia and forcibly return it to Georgian control.  Russian peacekeeping troops suffered casualties as a result of the Georgian Army's offensive, and in turn invaded Georgia.  The Russian Army took up defensive positions within Georgia.  While the Russians eventually withdrew from Georgia, they officially recognized South Ossetia and Abkhazia as independent states.  In response, Georgia officially cut all diplomatic ties with Russia.  The 2008 war destroyed all relations between Russia and Georgia. 

 

In 2010, Georgia revised its constitution, granting more powers to the parliament, and less powers to the president.  The new constitution was to take effect after the presidential election in 2013.  In 2012, Saakashvili's political party suffered electoral defeat and Bidzina Ivanishvili, a Georgian billionaire who has dual Georgian-Russian citizenship, won the election and formed a coalition government.  He proclaimed a new era of Georgian politics, and hopes increased for better relations between Russia and Georgia.

 

In 2013, Giorgi Margvelashvili (from Ivanishvili's Georgian Dream Coalition), was elected president.  One of his promises was that he wanted to work to improve relations with Russia.  Foreign policy analysts predicted that Georgia and Russia would indeed work to mend their relations.  It should be noted that the Georgian Dream Coalition has stated its goals of trying to improve relations with Russia while also pursuing closer ties with Europe, which they recently did by signing the association agreement with the European Union at the Vilnius Summit.

 

The time is indeed ripe for Georgia and Russia to begin building their relations after the 2008 war.  There are many trade issues that would benefit both states, and they could certainly cooperate in security issues in the Caucasus.  However, both Russia and Georgia need to build their relationship carefully.  They have many years of conflict to get past, and they need to start slowly building trust.  Georgia is in the unique position that it can cooperate with both Russia and the EU.  With almost a non-existent relationship with Russia, it can continue to increase cooperation with the EU and NATO while trying to build a relationship with Russia.  Russia does not have the ability to influence Georgia to do otherwise. 

 

In building a new relationship with Russia, Georgia must be careful.  If it chooses increased cooperation with the EU and NATO, then it cannot build a relationship with Russia unless it gives something substantial in return.  Perhaps if Georgia were to recognize Abkhazia and South Ossetia as independent states, it could pursue cooperation with both.  Further, relations will have to be built more on Russia's terms than the terms that Georgia has stipulated.  However, if Georgia approaches relationship-building with Russia in a careful way, it could prove to Russia that it does not need to fear increased the increased influence of the EU in the region, but rather that both powers could become important allies in continuing to stabilize the region.

 

Recently Georgia has made overtures to Russia to reestablish its relationship.  However, it has stated that it is willing to normalize relations with Russia only if Russia withdraws its troops from all of Georgian territory and that it recognizes Georgian territorial sovereignty to include Abkhazia and South Ossetia.  If it continues to insist on this, relations between Georgia and Russia will never be reestablished, and there will be continued instability in the Caucasus region.  Both states have a lot to gain from reestablishing their relationship, but the prospects for such a relationship continue to look bleak. 

 

Georgia and Russia can lay the groundwork for developing relations prior to normalization.  The first avenue of cooperation should be in trade.  Georgian wine was once plentiful in Russia, but since Russia's import ban, has been replaced by Chilean, Australian, Californian, and other wines.  Georgia produces wine that can be competitive in both taste and price in the Russian market.  Russia, in turn, has been trying to become more competitive in manufacturing.  It could export manufactured goods as well as technology to Georgia.  The economies of both countries would benefit from such a relationship.

 

Security is another avenue of cooperation that both states can pursue.  Following the recent terrorist attacks in Volgograd, terrorism is again a central issue of importance to the Russian government.  Russia and Georgia could work together to disrupt terrorist networks in Georgia.  Increased cooperation in security could lead to cooperation in other areas, which could in turn eventually lead to normalization of relations between the two countries even if Georgia continues to cooperate with the EU.

 

Russian expectations of Georgia are relatively low, and their relationship is at an all time low point.   Both countries have spoken about the desire to improve relations, yet there are fundamental issues that must be overcome.  Studies in political science have shown that the lack of trust is one of the biggest hurdles to interstate cooperation.  Those same studies have shown that the way to overcome the lack of trust is to begin to cooperate in simple areas that benefit both countries until enough trust can be built up to establish a normal cooperative relationship.  Trade is just one area that can begin to rebuild trust between Georgia and Russia.  Mutual security is another area.  If Georgia and Russia can just get beyond these initial hurdles to reestablishing a relationship, they can provide a blueprint for other states in the region (like Ukraine) to follow in order to cooperate with both the EU and Russia in such a way that benefits all the states involved as well as all of the states in the former Soviet Union.