... coincided with a highly acute political crisis in relations between Moscow and Washington.
Greg Thielmann:
Are We Approaching the End of the Arms Control Era?
The next link in the chain of disintegration is the bilateral START III Treaty. Mutual accusations about the failure to abide by this treaty – at least in terms of its spirit if not the letter – are becoming increasingly loud both in Russia and the US as are statements that the national security of either side will be guaranteed even if ...
... consider the issue. (Bolton, of course, is known to be extremely hostile to treaties in general and arms control in particular.) Few expect that he will allow a fair hearing from defense and intelligence officials, who are known to be strong advocates of New START extension.
Light in the Darkness
I cannot deny that prospects for a rejuvenation of arms control any time soon appear bleak. But I have lived through serious arms control challenges in the past. In this regards, 1983 often invades my mind. What ...
... more toward those agreements that were signed before Donald Trump came to power. This is not only the INF Treaty, but also the New START Treaty, which raises big questions and doubts about how good the treaty is and whether it should be renewed at all. ... ... to his internal political opponents that he is a much tougher politician towards Russia than, for example, Obama, or that accusations of his softness towards the Kremlin are completely unfounded.
Consequences of the US leaving the INF Treaty
Dmitry Stefanovich:
...
... opinion. We need to stop these conversations,” the expert said.
Pavel Zolotarev, Head of Research at RAS Institute for the U.S. and Canadian Studies, retired Major General, RIAC expert, noted that the U.S. withdrawal from the INF Treaty threatens New START — an agreement between the Russian Federation and the United States of America on Measures for the Further Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms. “Almost 99.9% that it will not be renewed. There is no reason to talk about ...
... Committee on Foreign Relations. The document explained Russia’s position with regard to the allegations of the United States that Moscow had failed to observe the INF Treaty [
5
]. Without going into much detail as to the essence of the mutual accusations, it should be noted that Washington’s failure to embrace a constructive approach presents the key threat to prolonging New START beyond 2021. Most importantly, Russia is presumably prepared to agree to a system of so-called “cabinet-level written political commitments”. Those are possible with regard to the cap on the total number of ballistic missile launch tubes ...
... a role.
But, in my opinion, the most telling blow was dealt in 2001 by the decision of U.S. President George Bush Jr. to unilaterally withdraw from the ABM Treaty. Yes, the Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty was signed in Moscow in 2002, and the New START was signed in 2010. And both these documents are, without a doubt, very important. However, they came as a result of specific political decisions taken by certain leaders, rather than a systemic approach of the two sides to ensuring strategic ...
... fourth, in this situation Russia and the United States should focus on preparations for the 2020 Review Conference of the Parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). Withdrawal from the INF Treaty and, more importantly, refusal to extend the New START Treaty would create major risks for the global non-proliferation regime, and the next NPT Review Conference may turn out to be the last. This will not benefit Moscow or Washington, and so a common interest in preserving the non-proliferation ...
... posed by intermediate-range ballistic missiles.
2) Extend the New START
Treaty until 2026. Set to expire in February 2021, the New START Treaty provides common-sense limits and verification on the numbers of U.S. and Russian deployed strategic weapons and ... ... Ukraine
Oleg Shakirov, Consultant, PIR Center, Russia
Pasha Sharikov, Head of the Center for Applied Research, Institute for USA and Canada Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences, Russia
Francesco Siccardi, Program Manager, Carnegie Europe, Italy
Marco ...
... short-range missiles were primarily a threat due to their ability to carry nuclear warheads. Even with a range of several thousand kilometres they would ensure guaranteed destruction of their targets with warheads yielding hundreds of kilotons. Today,... ... demonstrate and explain the specifics of their own weapons systems and accept the opponent’s explanations.
The prospects of the New START being prolonged are moot, and the balance may shift either way. In fact, if the INF Treaty is cancelled altogether, ...
... and multilateral arrangements to minimise the mutual threat of inadvertent escalation.
The prospects for the extension of the New START agreement in the absence of the INF Treaty may lead to several outcomes that appear rather similar from the Russian ... ... reinforce perceptions on both sides that the other is an unreliable partner. Yet at the same time, the absence of mutual accusations over alleged INF violations – since the treaty would no longer exist – may lead to a healthier bilateral environment,...
