... that the bare minimum of extending the agreement will be achieved. It is time we started preparing ourselves for the possibility of waking up in March 2021 in a world where there are no restrictions on nuclear weapons.
The potential disintegration of New START would not be catastrophic for Russia, all the more so because the country could derive some benefit from the “inter-treaty” period and approach the next, and hopefully inevitable, stage of arms control from the best position possible. However, a protracted nuclear arms race would ...
For all the importance of limiting and reducing nuclear arms, the priority task for all should be to prevent a nuclear war
For several years, serious experts in Russia and the West have repeatedly warned the public about the threat of the collapse of the international nuclear arms control system. They spoke about the system, to be precise, because in the past half a century arms control developed as a sum-total ...
... “Towards a More Stable NATO — Russia Relationship”
Even more distressing than the demise of the INF Treaty is the US and Russian failure to immediately exercise their option to extend the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty for five years beyond its ... ... Few expect that he will allow a fair hearing from defense and intelligence officials, who are known to be strong advocates of New START extension.
Light in the Darkness
I cannot deny that prospects for a rejuvenation of arms control any time soon appear ...
RIAC and RUSI Report, #45 / 2019
A report based on findings from the third round of the UK–Russia Track 1.5 (non-governmental) bilateral security dialogue, which
The Royal United Services Institute
(RUSI) held in collaboration with the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC).
The first year of the project identified several security and ...
... launched the procedure of withdrawal from the Treaty on the Elimination of the Intermediate-Range and Shorter-Range Missiles (INF Treaty). Russia, in turn, also suspended its participation in the INF. According to Andrei Kortunov, Director General of the Russian Council on International Affairs, the United States’ decision can create a “domino effect” in the nuclear arms control: by quitting the INF Treaty, Washington puts in question the prolongation of the New START agreement, and without the New START, there will be a broader issue of maintaining the nuclear weapons non-proliferation regime.
Three levels of argumentation
Igor Ivanov:
Nuclear Catastrophe: Myth or Reality?
There are three circumstances ...
... opinion. We need to stop these conversations,” the expert said.
Pavel Zolotarev, Head of Research at RAS Institute for the U.S. and Canadian Studies, retired Major General, RIAC expert, noted that the U.S. withdrawal from the INF Treaty threatens New START — an agreement between the Russian Federation and the United States of America on Measures for the Further Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms. “Almost 99.9% that it will not be renewed. There is no reason to talk about a new treaty,” said Zolotarev.
The speaker ...
... that Moscow had failed to observe the INF Treaty [
5
]. Without going into much detail as to the essence of the mutual accusations, it should be noted that Washington’s failure to embrace a constructive approach presents the key threat to prolonging New START beyond 2021. Most importantly, Russia is presumably prepared to agree to a system of so-called “cabinet-level written political commitments”. Those are possible with regard to the cap on the total number of ballistic missile launch tubes on U.S. Ohio-class submarines (with the ...
... unilaterally withdraw from the ABM Treaty. Yes, the Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty was signed in Moscow in 2002, and the New START was signed in 2010. And both these documents are, without a doubt, very important. However, they came as a result of ... ... or another. Its destruction is generally seen as the beginning of a new stage in U.S. foreign policy, one that does not take Russia’s legitimate interests into account.
Could the ABM Treaty have been saved?
Of course! President Putin made preserving ...
... much as possible and make the resumption of the talks as simple as possible. There are at least four ways of doing this.
Alexander Yermakov:
Brave New World Without INF Treaty
First, even the absence of formal obligations under the INF Treaty or the New START Treaty cannot stop the sides from honoring them de facto. The analysis of the Russian and American nuclear modernization plans shows that the sides do not intend to move beyond the existing agreements. An informal arrangement or at least a silent agreement to maintain the status quo in the nuclear sphere would definitely help Russia ...
... mutually-amenable solutions. Moscow and Washington should also intensify diplomatic efforts to begin a global conversation on the risks posed by intermediate-range ballistic missiles.
2) Extend the New START
Treaty until 2026. Set to expire in February 2021, the New START Treaty provides common-sense limits and verification on the numbers of U.S. and Russian deployed strategic weapons and delivery vehicles. Extending the treaty until 2026 will help ensure that our generation continues to benefit from the transparency and predictability that it provides.
3) Initiate a dialogue on nuclear risk reduction....
