... will highlight the following points. Cyber operations intended to coerce are a small subset of overall cyber operations globally. Espionage remains the predominant purpose of states’ cyber operations. Despite that, the authors think that states like Russia and North Korea appear to be more likely to have used cyber operations as a coercive tool than China and Iran. The authors also find that, contrary to what coercion theory would predict, states do not make distinct threats with unambiguous demands for changes ...
... opportunities to use it for achieving diplomatic goals.
Second, the breakdown of the JCPOA undermines non-proliferation efforts. North Korea is a case in point proving that while failing to remove sanctions, possessing nuclear weapons provides some leverage ... ... is no way of stopping it.
Author: Ivan Timofeev is Programme Director of the Valdai Discussion Club, Director of Programs at Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC).
First published in
Valdai Discussion Club
.
... United States have the power, means, normative and regulatory support, but also the political will to actively use destructive ICT capabilities. In this regard, we should note that all of the United States’ current strategic planning documents name Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea as its main opponents, and these countries are likely to be the targets of any cyberattacks. National Security Advisor of the United States John Bolton confirmed as much at a conference held by
The Wall Street Journal
this past June (just ...
On April 24-25, a Russian-North Korean summit will be held in Vladivostok. This meeting is long overdue, especially given the fact that Kim Jong-un has had four meetings with Chinese President Xi Jinping, three with South Korean President Moon Jae-in and two with Donald Trump....
... yielding practical results, and of military pressure proving unproductive. That is why our task is to get together and see what can be done, exchange opinions, and come up with ideas on how to keep up the positive momentum.
Q:
It is now very important for Russia and for the international community to understand the steps North Korea may undertake in terms of denuclearization. When, in your opinion, can we expect significant new steps towards nuclear disarmament by Pyongyang?
A:
I believe that realistically speaking the nuclear issue cannot be isolated from the broader ...
... levels. Although total trade turnover never recovered completely, amounting to $81 billion in 2012, Russia provides an annual quota of 35 thousand jobs for North Korean workers and educates dozens of DPRK’s future leaders. In May 2014, Moscow wrote off North Korean debt to Russia and the two countries signed an agreement hinting at a departure from the US dollar as an accounting currency. All transactions between Russia and the DPRK would now be in Russian rubles. Besides, in 2017 Russian company TransTeleCom
laid
an alternative ...
... blackmailed with the possibility of a military catastrophe, which would help the United States pursue several goals at once. First, to try and force Moscow and Beijing to take more decisive measures against Pyongyang (perhaps even with a view to changing the North Korean leadership). Second, to put China (and Russia, although its stakes in this particular game are not as high) in an uncomfortable position, no matter how events unfold. Continued support of Pyongyang would undermine China’s image around the world, and not only in the eyes of pro-American countries....
... diplomatic process is unacceptable. In particular, Russia should strive to reduce the scope of possible military drills and move them to regions far removed from the North Korean border and push for the United States to engage in a direct dialogue with North Korea as soon as possible. Russia may also offer the two Koreas a venue for a summit – in Vladivostok or Irkutsk, for example, since, for security reasons, Kim Jong-un cannot travel to the South and he hardly wants to travel to China, and because holding a third successive summit ...
... made two points about North Korea. 1. That the president’s coercive diplomacy against North Korea worked temporarily. Since Sept. 15 there has been no launching of North Korean missiles. But we also warned that our foreign foes, particularly the North Koreans, but also the Russians, view our president as in a weakened position. Thus Lincoln’s warning is apropos: “America will never be destroyed from the outside. If we falter and lose our freedom, it will be because we destroyed ourselves from within.” So first the ...
... returns for 2008-13, and it is undeniable that he had some lucrative real estate dealings with Russian oligarchs during those years. We may yet learn more.
“Toxic” Putin
The canceled summit prevented Trump from exploring with Putin a possible dual Russian-Chinese embargo of North Korea. However, Trump does at times display naiveté about foreign leaders, who might try to exploit his lack of experience. Now, with the help of his savvy generals, he has the time to bone up on Putin, the complex anti-communist, Machiavellian ...
