The Weekly Catch

What is the President of Colombia celebrating? Who found themselves by the wayside in Venezuela? What did the President of Argentina and Pope Francis discuss? Digest of the most important regional news.

Peace to the world, negotiations to Colombia

The October 2 referendum in Colombia did not approve the government’s peace accord with the FARC (more on the reasons and consequences here). Yet it appears that President Juan Manuel Santos who initiated the peace process is not planning to stop his activities in this area; on the contrary, he appears to be quite pleased and inspired concerning the situation, and he does have several of reasons for that.

First, even though the approbation fell through, the international public did not fail to notice the efforts of Colombia’s leader. On October 7, the Nobel Committee awarded Santos the Nobel Peace Prize for ending the protracted conflict with the FARC. The Prize is a momentous event for Colombia, the second Nobel award for the country (the first was awarded to Gabriel Garcia Marquez in 1982). Mr. Santos himself understands that it is both a high assessment and a large advance; and he wants to justify the expectations of the international public.

REUTERS/Handout

Secondly, Colombia's second-largest armed group, the National Liberation Army (ELN), confirmed its intention to start peace talks with the government. On October 10, the parties announced that the talks would start on October 27 in Quito, Ecuador. To ensure the success of the process, the NLA (ELN) began to set free the civil hostages they had been holding.

Thirdly, several large rallies in support of implementing the peace accord were held in Colombia. The largest, the so-called “white march,” took place in Bogota on October 5. Curiously, the young generation and universities were the main engines behind the rally. They started promoting the idea of a peace march and in a record time, they managed to mobilize thousands of supporters of the peace process. It is a good sign for the incumbent president: the failure of the referendum did not undermine the trust a large part of the society has in Mr. Santos’ course toward conflict settlement.

At the same time, the Colombian opposition which promoted the “NO” vote at the referendum, started a dialog with the government: on October 11, the first full-fledged meeting was held where a new agreement with the FARC was discussed. These new talks will not be a walk in the park for the government: the president himself is talking about “refining” the document, while the opposition led by Álvaro Uribe insists on significant changes to the “content.” Either way, the meeting is a positive sign for Colombia which thirsts for peace; at least, there is a chance to overcome the internal differences regarding the settlement process.

Maduro passes by

Last week, rumors began to circulate that Nicolás Maduro, the President of Venezuela, could take another step into the political abyss and have the 2017 budget approved by an executive order, bypassing the country’s parliament. On October 15, the rumors were confirmed: Mr. Maduro submitted the budget he had signed to the Republic’s Supreme Court to have it approved there instead of in the Parliament. The chances that the Court will approve the document are high: unlike the National Assembly, where the opposition to Mr. Maduro has the majority, the Supreme Court is controlled by the Bolivarian authorities. The war between the branches of power seems to be picking up pace: the court declares the Parliament’s decisions null and void, opposition members have their mandates revoked, the President vetoes already approved legislation, the “officialism” deputies hinder the Parliament’s work. Yet the country’s budget is a new level of confrontation, since Venezuela will have to live by it for the entire 2017. The document signed by Mr. Maduro reflects overly optimistic assessments of Venezuela’s collapsing economy, not to mention the fact that is has a rather dubious balance: about 74% of all the expenses are allocated for the social sphere.

It is unclear what Venezuela’s opposition intends to do: will it summon its supporters to take part in another rally, will it keep silent, or will it take extreme steps?

The President and the Pope

An important meeting took place on October 15 in the Vatican: Mauricio Macri, the President of Argentina, met with Pope Francis for the second time. The conversation lasted for over an hour, the parties discussed fighting poverty and drug trafficking, social problems, climate change, and several events in Argentina’s domestic affairs. According to Mr. Macri, the Pontiff follows the state of affairs in Argentina and the work of Argentina’s government.

A full-fledged dialog with the head of the Roman Catholic Church is of significant importance for Mr. Macri. Their first meeting did not go well: it lasted twenty minutes only, the atmosphere was clearly tense and unfriendly, and the Pontiff appeared detached and not at all the communicative and welcoming interlocutor he is known to be. The Pope’s lukewarm reception dealt a significant blow to the image of the newly-elected Mr. Macri, since the Catholic Argentina greatly loves and respects their fellow Argentinian who now holds the Holy See. Mr. Macri and the Pontiff’s relations go back a long way and they have never been easy. The two know each other since the time when Mr. Macri was the Mayor of Buenos Aires and Jorge Mario Bergoglio was the city’s archbishop. Their confrontation on the issues of same-sex marriages and abortions was only the start of their mutual antipathy, which the politicians failed to overcome when they were elected to their present high offices. The current attempt at resetting their relations started in May, and it appears that the two Argentinians finally have a chance to improve their relations. It is particularly important for the president, who understands well the scope of the Pontiff’s influence on the domestic politics and attitudes.

However, it is yet early to say that the resetting is a success: Argentina is still absent from the list of countries the Pope plans to visit in the nearest future.