The geopolitical consequences of the Ukraine crisis

Author - Dr Marcin Styszynski, Assistant Professor, Faculty of Arabic and Islamic Studies, Adam Mickiewicz University in Poznan (Poland).

The current events in Ukraine and developing crisis between the West and Russia have encouraged European countries to diversify their energy sources based so far on Russian supplies. However, the alternative gas projects such as Nabucco Pipeline (Iran, Azerbaijan, Turkey), Trans Adriatic Pipeline – TAP (Azerbaijan, Georgia, Greece) or Galsi Pipeline (Algeria, Italy) are still under construction or haven’t succeeded yet.

The situation forced the West to focus on the Middle East and Africa holding huge reservoirs of hydrocarbons like Qatar, Iran, Libya, Syria, Palestine, Lebanon, Iraq or Algeria. Although political efforts, the West has found many obstacles in its plans because of diplomatic and economic offensive conducted by Russian authorities, which are trying to forestall or stop Western activities in the region.

It should be pointed out that the successful Russian policy relies on present political and social circumstances in the Middle East and Africa after three years of so-called the Arab Spring. In fact, many countries affected by that phenomenon have changed their attitude to the crucial values of the Arab revolution such as democracy, freedom, liberalism or fight against authoritarianism. Egyptian, Tunisian, Algerian or Iraqi and Libyan societies started to compare those ideas to chaos, destabilization, terrorism and economic crisis, which became a side effect of the transition process. Public opinion in the Arab world invented a new definition: kharif arabi (Arab Autumn), which replaces the positive meanings of the Arab Spring.

The new social and political conditions in the region are characterized by overthrow of President Mohammmed Mursi in Egypt, destruction of legal authorities and come back of the army to power.

Moreover, Libyan authorities consolidate their military forces against tribal and jihadist militias (the current offensive of general Khalifa Haftar) and Tunisian governments gives several authorizations to army and police to destroy radical Islamic movements. Finally, we can observe transformation of peaceful demonstrations in Syria into further violent acts and raise of radical Islamic groups affiliated with Al-Qaida that strengthen Al-Assad regime and provoke worldwide concerns about future solutions of the conflict. Besides, local authorities and communities accuse Western governments of the situation and condemn them for interfering in internal affairs and exerting political and economic pressure on local societies.

Russia took advantage of the new circumstances after a long period of absence in global political scene. Moreover, Russian authorities share the same feelings and goals regarding restoration of security, stability and social order at the cost of liberalism and sometimes, human rights and freedom. For example, during the debate of the Russian Federation Council accepting the military intervention in Crimea, some members compared the situation in Ukraine to pessimistic and tragic events in Libya, Iraq or Egypt.

However, the restoration of Russian influences in the region concerns two main factors: hydrocarbons and military contracts. The following examples show the symbolic change of geopolitical rules and regulations between the Arab world and its donators and allies from the West.

After the overthrow of legal authorities in Egypt by the army and US temporary freeze on military assistance, the field marshal Abdel Fattah al-Sisi visited in February 2014 Moscow and declared with president Vladimir Putin further military and economic cooperation[1]. The influential role of al-Sisi and local approbation of his tough policy opposite to liberal and democratic ideas of the past revolution is additional reason of Russian reactivity in Egypt.

Furthermore, during violent demonstrations and clashes in Kiev in February 2014 the Foreign Minister of Russia, Sergey Lavrov paid a visit to Baghdad where he stressed his support to fight against terrorism and different military and economic contracts between the two countries[2]. The visit in Iraq during the tragic political situation in Ukraine shows forward-looking Russian policy, which preserves and expands economic and political influences in case of worldwide isolation conducted by Western governments. Apart from different projects in Iraq, the exploitation of crude oil in the West Qurna Fields by Lukoil seems to be very distinctive in that context. It concerns oil mining estimated at around 120 000 barrels a day and it can reach 420 000 barrels a day in the near future[3].

Geopolitical activities of Russia also regard cooperation with the Levant Basin and countries like Syria, Lebanon or Palestine and Cyprus. Russian support to local authorities, including al-Assad regime enabled to strengthen cooperation in economic fields. The Levant Basin project contains 122 trillion cubic feet of natural gas and it concerns implementation of gas terminals and pipelines through Syrian coastal Banias and Tartous as well as Iran, Lebanon and Palestine towards Cyprus[4]. The expansion is conducted by Russian enterprises Story Trans Gaz and Rus Naft already operating in the central regions of Syria[5].

The Levant Basin project also includes the Gaza Strip and the old fields discovered by British Gas twenty years ago. During his visit in Palestine in January 2014, president Putin has signed the contract Marine 1 and Marine 2 regarding the exploitation of local fields containing 105,9 billion cubic feet. Besides, the success of the project also relied on acceptation and positive reactions of Israel, which encouraged in that way Mahmud Abbas and Fatah authority instead of banned Hamas movement dominating in the Gaza Strip[6].

Cyprus plays a significant role as well because of its geopolitical place in the Mediterranean Sea and Europe. The fruitful cooperation between Russia and Cyprus is marked by oligarchs’ deposits in Nicosia’s banks as well as Russian financial support of 5 billion USD during the Greek crisis[7]. The Russian Federation preserved its future interests, especially in the context of European declarations underlining the diversification of energy supplies.

The Levant Basin project can be also an alternative for complicated cooperation with Iran caused by worldwide sanctions and nuclear program. Moreover, natural sources of Iran cover especially domestic needs.

The reservation of attractive fields is also problematic for the Gulf countries like Qatar, especially in the context of future pipelines and gas terminals transporting LNG from the Gulf. The situation explains last Saudi Arabian political operations. Prince Bandar bin Sultan, the Head of foreign intelligence service visited Moscow in December 2013 and encouraged president Putin to reduce his support to al-Assad regime by offering 15 billion USD for military contracts[8]. Besides economic fears, the Gulf Sunni monarchies try to avoid Shia domination supported by future Iraqi, Iranian and Syrian economic consortium operating under Russian umbrella. 

Algeria is another important partner for Russian authorities, especially in the context of military contracts. It should be pointed out that although diversification policy, Algerian military equipment is based on Russian supplies because of historic relationships between the two countries and Western embargo implemented in the nineties during the civil war in Algeria. Arm contracts reached 7 billion USD during the past years and they usually concerned advanced planes Yak 130, fighter aircrafts Sukhoi 30, fighter-bombers Su32 or helicopters Mi 28. Moreover, the military contracts offered by Moscow became an alternative and distinctive feature among other countries, which try to compete in local market and hydrocarbons fields. Although presence of different Western companies in the south of the country, the Russian enterprises Story Trans Gaz and Rus Naft declared intensification of their activities in energy projects and gas exploitation. Moreover, Algerian hydrocarbons market became more attractive in the context of the current destabilization in Libya, which blocked its coastal gas terminals because of political competitions between local tribal militias and fights among jihadist groups.             

Conclusion

The restoration of Russian influences in the Middle East and Africa are affected by Ukraine crisis and diversification of energy sources based so far on Russian supplies.

Russian authorities started new diplomatic and economic offensive in the Arab world in order to preserve their interests and hamper Western negotiations with local governments about hydrocarbons.

Besides, the political and social changes in the Arab world after the failure of the Arab Spring as well as the current unrest in the region also enabled to expand Russian domination in particular countries, which search new political and economic partners after disappointment of Western policy and strategy during the last past years.