Publications Review. The Baltic Sea region reacts to Russia
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The tension between Russia and the West over Ukraine has caused the Baltic Sea region to reexamine its relationship with its geopolitical neighbor, Russia. Specifically, the nations of this region have begun to evaluate the repercussions of a prolonged Ukrainian crisis and Russian actions in regard to security, economy, energy and even daily life. This region, however, consists of an eclectic group of Nordic countries and former Soviet states, which means that they may not focus on the same issues as the entire European Union or even agree amongst themselves on how to respond. For this reason, the Russian International Affairs Council has provided you with various reports from think tanks and press agencies across the region on various topics to inform our readers of the recent discussions, concerns and recommendations of the diverse Baltic Sea region.
Denmark
Centre for Military Studies at the University of Copenhagen
The Ukraine Crisis and the End of the Post-Cold War European Order: Options for NATO and the EU
The University of Copenhagen released a report that argues the West’s foreign relations policy needs to be changed due to events in Ukraine. Foremost, both the West and Russia have different goals, which must be recognized for success in the long term. The report begins with describing the past relations between Russia, the West and Western institutions. It then provides analysis of challenges in relation to these countries and institutions. Finally, it provides a set of recommendations which suggests a stronger NATO that encourages solidarity, larger defense budgets and a review of the purpose of partnerships.
The Copenhagen Post
Denmark ready to pledge more support to NATO
Danish Defense Minister Nicolai Wammen announced that Denmark will offer NATO another ship to support mine-clearing and provide more observational aircraft to the Baltic Sea region. These gestures suggest that Denmark strongly supports ramping up NATOs capabilities due to the Ukrainian conflict. Although the Danish government does not think military action is the required solution, a stronger NATO will ensure more stability in the future.
Estonia
International Centre for Defense Studies
In light of Crimea’s annexation, the Estonian government is reviewing the capabilities of its national defense system. Estonia’s previous defense report in 2013 suggested that there are some short-comings in Estonian defense. Estonia must now decide where emphasis should be placed to reinforce its defense systems. The following article provides an analysis of Estonia’s capabilities if placed under a similar situation as Crimea. Moreover, it provides recommendations as to what the Estonian government should do to prevent such an outcome in the future.
Russian Armed Forces in the Baltic Sea Region
An article from the International Centre for Defense Studies reports on the recent buildup of the Russian Federation in the Baltic Sea region. Beginning with the military reform in October of 2008, Russia has decided to reorganize its armed forces. This decision according to the article has led to increase in organization, numbers of Russian military personnel and the stationing of specific weapon systems. As a result, however, Russia is now able to create a stronger military presence that if needed could challenge NATO.
Finland
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The Finnish Institute of International Affairs
A Finnish institution analyzes how the destabilization of Ukraine has directly affected the security of the Visegard countries—Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary. Although some would believe the Visegard countries would all sanction Russia, their individual policies towards Russia and domestic concerns have not allowed them to act in unison. The following article looks at individual factors among the countries in order to provide a coherent picture of how they will act in response to a protracted conflict.
Yle
Niinistö after Ukraine visit: “Open discussion is needed”
Finnish President Sauli Niinisto met with President Putin and President Poroshenko during the weekend of August 15th to discuss relations involving the EU, Ukraine and Russia. Although Niinisto will not act as a peace-broker, he confirmed that Finland will continue to assist solving the crisis.
Latvia
Latvian Institute of International Affairs
The Baltic States and NATO – Is Being a Part Enough?
The recent events in Ukraine have encouraged Latvia to become a stronger proponent of NATO.The Latvian Defense Minister recently suggested an enhanced military presence of NATO to ensure further security. At the same time, however, Latvia should not become too dependent on an international institution. If NATO is not able to quickly come to the defense of Latvia, the country would be ill-prepared due to its own small budget for defense spending for the past few years. Consequently, a new discussion about national defense should begin in order that Latvia can defend itself from an immediate threat.
The Baltic Times
Unrest Prevails as NATO moves in
An analysis provided by the Baltic Times comments on NATO’s effectiveness in the Baltic region. Although a British report suggests further improvements in NATO to act as a credible deterrent, Baltic States have not found any issue in their effectiveness. Regardless of NATO’s capabilities, Latvia believes that it will have to increase its defense spending for the upcoming arms race with Russia. An additional issue of concern for both Latvia and Estonia is how best to integrate the large amount of ethnic Russians that live in their country. This issue to ensure the successful immersion of Russian minorities could deter Russian aggression.
Lithuania
LRT
Who are the Major Losers of Russia’s Sanctions?
Russia’s recent sanctions against food produced in the European Union could have major repercussions for Lithuania. Although the sanctions were intended to retaliate against the EU’s own sanctions, the burden is unevenly distributed among members of the EU. Lithuania is a major agricultural exporter to Russia in regards to vegetables, fruits, nuts, and dairy products, all of which were banned by the Russia’s sanctions. In addition to damaging EU countries, the sanctions could also provide an opportunity for Russia to strengthen its domestic agricultural production, and thereby making the country less dependent on imports in the long-run.
Norway
Norwegian Defence Research Establishment
Russia may gain small and loose big
A researcher from the establishment comments on the ambitions of Russia’s annexation of Crimea in relation to the notion of a Eurasian Union. He believes that in 2013 Russia could expect the Eurasian Union to be promising because of Armenia’s and Ukraine’s refusal of a European Union Association Agreement. After the events in Ukraine, however, countries formerly considering entering into such a union will now be more wary. Consequently, an already challenging process of economic integration will now be even more difficult for Russia to accomplish.
Newsinenglish.no
Russian sanctions Squeeze Norway
Although the Norwegian government has been critical of Russia’s actions in Ukraine and has supported the west, the proposed sanctions at the end of July gave Norway reason to hesitate. Such sanctions would cause a major loss in profits for Norwegian exports of energy –related equipment and technology. Moreover, Norwegian news agency accurately predicted that Russia would consider retaliation via boycotting of Norwegian food imports, a further thorn in the side of Norwegian business.
Sweden
The Swedish Defense Research Agency
A Rude Awakening: Ramifications of Russian Aggression Towards Ukraine
A Swedish research agency has organized a comprehensive report on the overall impact of Russian aggression towards Ukraine at an international level. The report can be broken down into two sections. The first part discusses the underlying events that led to the current situation in Ukraine. The second part focuses on the implications of the actions taken by Ukraine and Russia, and the future challenges for the international community as a whole. The report touches on issues of law, energy, economy and security among several other topics influenced by the current events in the country.
Sveriges Radio
Bildt troubled by Russian food sanctions
Swedish Foreign Minister Carl Bildt is worried about the recent Russian sanctions against the European Union, which also affect Swedish businesses. According to Reuters, Sweden exported US $32 million last year to Russia, a hefty sum. More importantly, Bildt believes that the stopping of food imports will be an attempt to strengthen Russian nationalism and protectionism. At the same time, however, Bildt admits that these measures will be unpopular in the major cities which depend on imports now banned.
RIAC editing team gives special thanks to Jesse I. Fleck, author of this digest.
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