What should we expect from the new Russia-South Ossetia Agreement?

According to recent media reports, South Ossetia seems to be following Abkhazia's example and is now preparing a new agreement on closer cooperation with Russia. Will this document become a breakthrough in bilateral relations or will it merely record achievements to date? Sergey Markedonov, PhD in History, Associate Professor with the Department of Regional Studies and Foreign Policy at the Russian State University for the Humanities and RIAC expert, shares his insights on the issue.

According to recent media reports, South Ossetia seems to be following Abkhazia's example and is now preparing a new agreement on closer cooperation with Russia. Will this document become a breakthrough in bilateral relations or will it merely record achievements to date? Sergey Markedonov, PhD in History, Associate Professor with the Department of Regional Studies and Foreign Policy at the Russian State University for the Humanities and RIAC expert, shares his insights on the issue.

I would like to note that it is important not to confuse Abkhazia and South Ossetia, as Russia's relations with each are quite different. Despite Abkhazia's dependence on Russia in matters of defense, security and public funds, its national elite is striving to develop a state project (this aspiration is definitely there, however contradictory and naïve it may seem). As to South Ossetia, it has expressed the desire to unite with North Ossetia under a Russian aegis from the very beginning of the movement of secession from Georgia in the late 1980s-early 1990s. Two referendums were held on this issue, in 1992, when the conflict was still in an acute phase, and in 2006, i.e. two years before the events of August 2008 and Russia's recognition of South Ossetia.

Sergey Markedonov

Although the 2014 developments in South Ossetia were not as striking as those in Abkhazia, parliamentary elections were held and won by the United Ossetia Party. It received the popular mandate to elect the parliamentary Speaker. The party's supporters favor unification with the Russian Federation's North Ossetia under Russian auspices. Public opinion backs this project, and I see little if any controversy in South Ossetia concerning an agreement between Russia and South Ossetia, as happened in Abkhazia. Considerable controversy, especially in Abkhaz society, surrounded the discussion of the agreement with Abkhazia. During the treaty's ratification in the Abkhaz parliament, some deputies even voted against it.

Such a discussion is hardly possible in South Ossetia, since the general public there believes that, after Crimea, Russia should apply more effort to take South Ossetia under its wing, because Crimea has not endured armed conflict, while South Ossetia did.

As for the provisions of the agreement, commenting requires a more detailed analysis of the wording. However, I doubt that this document will become a new step in further promoting the already existing relations between Russia and South Ossetia or that it will add anything new to what has already been achieved. It is obvious that, against the background of the Ukrainian crisis and confrontation with the West, Russia will not bring South Ossetia into the fold.

This agreement will reflect realities specific to the South Ossetian line of Russian policy after 2008. It will cover Russia's military presence, security cooperation, and economic issues. It is very similar to the clauses shaping the bilateral relations between Russia and Abkhazia. However, some issues, such as the possibility of dual citizenship and facilitating the procedure of obtaining the Abkhaz citizenship, have been viewed differently. I do not think that, in South Ossetia, the issue of dual citizenship will be perceived negatively. The problem is that before the armed conflict with Georgia in the early 1990s, Ossetians were in the majority in South Ossetia while the Abkhazians were a minority in Abkhazia, accounting for 17 percent of the population, while Ossetians make up more than 60 percent of the population in South Ossetia.

In any case, the conclusion of this agreement should not be viewed as a breakthrough in bilateral relations. Georgian authorities will surely talk about Russia's policy of annexation, and Western countries will throw cold water on this event, most likely, confining their reaction to a rhetorical condemnation of Moscow. However, the application of drastic measures against Russia is unlikely, unless South Ossetia is made part of the Russian Federation, which in the current context would be highly problematic.

Prepared for publication by RIAC Program Assistant Maria Gurova.