Stefanie Babst: We Need to Settle the Ukrainian Crisis First

On July 11–12, 2016, Moscow became the venue for the 162nd Bergedorf Roundtable titled “Russia and Europe: What Unites Us, What Divides Us?” held by the Russian International Affairs Council and the Korber Foundation. RIAC website editor Maria Smekalova asked Stefanie Babst, Head of Strategic Analysis Capability to the NATO and Chairman of the Military Committee, about the latest NATO summit results, prospects of Russia-NATO copperation and the bloc’s reaction to Brexit.

On July 11–12, 2016, Moscow became the venue for the 162nd Bergedorf Roundtable titled “Russia and Europe: What Unites Us, What Divides Us?” held by the Russian International Affairs Council and the Korber Foundation. RIAC website editor Maria Smekalova asked Stefanie Babst, Head of Strategic Analysis Capability to the NATO and Chairman of the Military Committee, about the latest NATO summit results, prospects of Russia-NATO copperation and the bloc’s reaction to Brexit.

Could you comment on NATO Summit outcome?

Well, overall I think the allies are very happy with the conduct of the Warsaw summit. In particular, because everything that was prepared for the Heads of State and Government to sign was signed, everything that was prepared to be discussed was discussed. I think it was important that the allies spoke with one voice, not only on their future actions vis-à-vis the Middle East and the South, but also when it comes to the alliance’s future relations with Russia. The allies agreed that our future strategy towards Russia should be based on a dual track philosophy. One is that of enhanced deterrence, and the other one is that of dialogue. In that respect the allies were very much in line with each other. There was absolutely no diverting voice, and we will now in the next couple of months translate all of these decisions into action.

Stefanie Babst

The NATO-Russia Council has resumed its activity. Can we expect any kind of rapprochement in the near future?

I think that depends very much, in fact, on the Russian side because the NATO allies have made their position very clear. They have said, and they have reiterated this in Warsaw, that practical cooperation remains suspended until we have seen the full implementation of the Minsk agreement. We need to see that Russia continues to adhere to internationally agreed norms. Now, obviously our hope is that progress will be made in the Minsk process, but I think it’s already very important that the allies get together with Russian partners to talk about a number of issues. One of the issues which is really important to us is to find agreement with Russia on reducing military incidents, reducing the risk of misunderstanding each other in military terms, and how we can ultimately modernize the Vienna document that guides military inspections and transparency.

Nowadays there are several conflicts in the world that require international efforts. How can Russia and NATO cooperate to solve some of the existing crises?

EPA/RADEK PIETRUSZKA/Vostock Photo
Dmitry Danilov:
NATO has swung back to strategic competition,
according to which Russia is seen as a major and
long-term challenge

You are right, assuming that there would be ample ground for Russia and NATO to work together, and we did so before the illegal annexation of Crimea. Unfortunately, the time is not right yet because we think it is critical to first settle a conflict which is still very hot in Europe and which involves one of our partners, Ukraine. So before we have settled that conflict, it will be very difficult to work jointly on other issues. We have to deal with this one first.

Do you think Brexit will lead to serious consequences for the NATO?

First of all, the United Kingdom is still a member of the European Union, and will remain so until the vote on Article 50 of the European Treaty. Only then the process of divorce will start. I think it is only then and at the end of that process that we can actually make a judgement about how that could affect NATO. So for me this is far too early to say that NATO will be affected. What counts for us now is that we have a truly committed ally amongst our members, that we have an ally, fully dedicated to NATO’s overall agenda, to our operations, and is also an active contributor to our military outpost. That will remain the case for some time to come. However, I do think it all depends on how the process between the European Union and the United Kingdom will develop and what that relationship at the end of the day will be. And we don’t know that yet because first, the UK would have to invoke Article 50 of the Washington Treaty and then we will see the process unfolding. We have to be a bit more patient.