During last twenty years Russian relations with Latvia were most tense on the background of other Baltic states. But they still keep the dynamism and are able to evolve towards a mutually beneficial dialogue.
During last twenty years Russian relations with Latvia were most tense on the background of other Baltic states. But they still keep the dynamism and are able to evolve towards a mutually beneficial dialogue.
20 years of diplomatic relations between the Russian Federation and Latvian Republics was celebrated on October 4, 2011. The past years were anything but simple for a bilateral dialogue and during 1990-2000 relations between Latvia and Russia were most tense than with all other Baltic states. But as said by a new Minister of Foreign Affairs of Latvia E.Rinkevics today they are better then ever.
Undue expectations
Withdrawal from the USSR for Latvia was linked with expectations traditional for all Baltic States:
1) to become a full-fledged and equal member of the western society (to make true the slogan “Back to Europe” that was so popular in Baltic states in late 1980-ies – early 1990-ies);
2) to join major Europe-Atlantic integration structures;
3) to overhaul the economy to create living conditions comparable to those in Scandinavian countries.
The wish to join European integration structures was respected in 2004 with the accession to NATO and EU. Formally and legally Latvia did manage to become a full-fledged and equal part of the western society (setting aside the transfer of some sovereignty to Washington and Brussels while joining these structures). But during the global financial crisis which swept Latvia in 2008 when, as mentioned by the Deputy of Latvian Seim N. Kabanov “from the so called “Baltic tiger” the country turned into a sick kitten” , the equality of Latvian participation in the international and supranational structures was put to question. In 2008 the government of the country agreed with the EU, international organizations (IMF, EBRD, World Bank) and donor-countries (Sweden, Denmark, Norway, Finland, Check republic, Poland and Estonia) about a loan of 7.5 bln. Dollars in exchange to the commitment to undertake structural reforms increasing the tax burden on population and reducing social expenditures and to allow international expects participate in the adoption and approval of the budget. In this respect the third goal can hardly be reached in the visible future: reduction of population in the 2000-ies by at least 300-400 thousand people is a better proof than any economic indicators.
Latvian society is supersensitive to the fact that due to the accession to EU and continuing membership in this organization the country has to incorporate in the national legislation thousands of European acts, that were adopted far away and without any consultations with Latvia (the leader of Latvian Party of Eurosceptics N.Gostinsh informed that by 2006 there were 23 thousand of such acts). First of all, it seems that Latvia moved from the “Soviet empire” into a “European empire”. Secondly, in the preparation and implementation of resolutions adopted in Brussels, Latvia (together with other small countries, admitted to EU during last two waves of enlargement) faces problems in defending the interests of the country for the simple lack of diplomats proficient in the main EU languages.
Russia and Latvia: a hard way towards a dialogue
Euphoria of the first decade of independence cannot but impact the relation with Russia which was in many aspects irrational. The common sense can not explain the destruction of nearly all the industry in Latvia, because it was a symbol of the Soviet past or the establishment of a non-citizenship institute (non-citizens are disadvantaged by 70-80 rights as compared to citizens) or the choice of a confrontational foreign policy towards Russia. Moreover, from the viewpoint of the current political establishment of Latvia, the mere decision to secede from the USSR was, by apt remark of Russian sociologist R.Simonyan a “political oddity” as it was adopted by the Supreme Council, i.e. “the occupational regime body”. The Soviet past of the country is still regarded as an “occupation” by numerous politicians in Latvia.
A political interest of right conservative Latvian elite that came to power in early 1990-ies and is still in force, called for the creation of something that the sociology defines as a myth – i.e. an ideological construct with a deep historical background. This construct was presented by a so call occupational doctrine, which acts as a linchpin for political decisions and justifies any actions of the government, primarily its failures. Hundreds of thousands of ethnic Russians and Russian-speakers that have been living on the territory of Latvia for decades became hostages of these political games (while many of these people supported the creation of an independent state in 1990–1991). The problem is still there (by January 1, 2011 the number of non-citizens made 325845 people) while it became less acute when in 2007 the non-citizens were allowed to work in EU countries and in 2008 – to enter Russia without visas.
But the global financial and economic crises made Latvian population more pragmatic in view of foreign policy: the possibility to keep a personal welfare is now more important that adherence to insufficiently convincing ideological dogmas. Nevertheless the polls show that 62 % of economically active population in Latvia (that nearly coincides with the number of ethnic Letts – 59.5 %) do not support the Russian language as the second official language, among them 49 % – “in full” and 13 % – “probably not”. At the same time they appreciate the need of closer contacts with the eastern neighbor: 64 % follow a recently elected President A. Berzinsh and vote for the visa-free regime between EU and Russia (37 % – “in full”, 27 % – «probably yes»).
The negative image of Latvian policy that has been being built for a decade and a half is difficult to change in Russian public consciousness. It is evidenced by the results of polls conducted by “Levada-center” when respondents were asked to named five countries most hostile to Russia. During last six years Latvia is always present in the list though it went down from the first to the third position. In 2005 it was named by 49 % of respondents (N=1600), in 2006 – 46 %, in 2007 – 36 %, in 2009 – 35 % and in 2010 – 36 %, in 2011 – 35 %.
At the same time official Russian-Latvian relations unlike Russian-Lithuanian and Russian-Estonian turned to be more dynamic and able to evolve towards a mutually beneficial dialogue. Some warming could be seen after the Treaty on Russian-Latvian border entered into force in 2007. While a bilateral dialogue is still exacerbated by debates on historical and political issues, President V. Zalters came to Russia on an official visit in December 2010 and signed nine bilateral agreements. It opened a new page in the history of relations between Russia and Latvia: after the twenty years of “cold peace” the parties found opportunity to build full-fledged relations and the crises in the global economy acted as a catalyst of rapprochement.
Are there any prospects?
With the globalization in place, the geo-economic position of a state becomes one of the key factors for social and economic development. Latvia, together with other two Baltic states occupies a very advantageous place in Europe. While during the first independence (between the world wars) this position was considered by western countries mainly from the military and strategic viewpoint, today the key issue is the ability of the state to be incorporated into the international and transcontinental logistical schemes. Nevertheless, it should be remembered that Latvia is not a member of CFE Treaty, but is a member of NATO, which as said by the head of Latvia Ministry of Foreign Affairs E.Rinkevics, together with the EU membership “should offer the possibilities and create basis for the resolution of issues in bilateral relations” with Russia.
It is true that the interest to the transportation and logistical sector of Latvian economy is displayed by many states from different parts of the world. About 80% of the sea export of Belarus goes via Latvia. The container train “Baltica-Transit” starts its route from Latvia and the major part of its cargo are NATO containers delivered to Afghanistan from USA (43 % – in 2009 and 55 % – in 2010).
Economic giants of Eastern Asia, particularly China presenting itself as a global player, also demonstrate the interest to Latvia. It might sound optimistic for Latvian businessmen and politicians but hardly can be implemented without the strengthening of amicable business contacts and establishment of a favorable environment for the bilateral cooperation with the eastern partner. At the business forum “Strategic partnership 1520: the Baltic region” that took place in Riga on October 17-18, 2011, on the session titled “Container cargo as a future of multimode transportation in Baltic region” Guntis Macs, Chairman of “LDz Cargo” rightly stated that “Chinese direction may be explored only with the colleagues for Russia and Central Asia. Hugh investments are needed and this project is still awaiting the development”.
Most probably, the economic component of Russian-Latvian relation that was developing despite political difficulties at the present moment is the most promising domain for the application of efforts of the two countries. Though, mere pragmatic approach can hardly resolve all contradictions in the historic memory and their impact on the internal and foreign policy of Latvia. There is a need in a political will and common sense, and the rest can be handled by the objective laws of the world economy development.
