Russia and China: Towards A Bright Future?
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On May 29, 2015, RIAC and the RAS Institute for Far Eastern Studies held an International Conference entitled “Russia and China: a New Partnership in a Changing World.” The future of Russian-Chinese relations was at the heart of plenary sessions, expert debates and general discussions by participants. Vladimir Portyakov, Alexei Voskresensky, Sergei Kulik and Dmitry Mosyakov shared their insights on these issues, as well as on technological cooperation between Moscow and Beijing and on how the countries of Southeast Asia perceive the new Russian-Chinese partnership.
On May 29, 2015, RIAC and the RAS Institute for Far Eastern Studies held an International Conference entitled “Russia and China: a New Partnership in a Changing World.” The future of Russian-Chinese relations was at the heart of plenary sessions, expert debates and general discussions by participants.
Vladimir Portyakov, Deputy Director of the RAS Institute for Far Eastern Studies, Alexei Voskresensky, Dean of the School of Political Science at MGIMO-University, Sergei Kulik, Director for International Development at “the Institute for Contemporary Development” Foundation and Dmitry Mosyakov, Deputy Director of the RAS Institute of Oriental Studies, shared their insights on these issues, as well as on technological cooperation between Moscow and Beijing and on how the countries of Southeast Asia perceive the new Russian-Chinese partnership.
Vladimir Portyakov: Discussions over joining the Silk Road project with EAEC projects are already underway. In my opinion, many Russian experts have been rather forward in expressing full support for this idea. We should understand that these projects do not match each other in terms of scale. Today, Li Yongquan opened his speech by saying that the Great Silk Road is China’s strategy for development, and the choice to join it – and if so, in what form - is for us to make.
The Great Silk Road is China’s strategy for development, and the choice to join it – and if so, in what form - is for us to make.
Raising the issue of combining efforts in this regard is quite appropriate, since there are overlapping geographical areas. But the Eurasian Economic Union is considerably smaller in terms of geography. Therefore, combining efforts as has been proposed can contribute to resolving only certain problems related to Chinese development within the framework of this concept.
However, other areas of cooperation under the project are being planned as well. It has been suggested to create Russia – Mongolia and northeast China – Far East Russia corridors. Engagement under this project has many sides, and I would like to draw attention to the agreement signed by Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping. Its wording is very careful and states: let us begin negotiations and explore possibilities.
Our joint ventures have failed more than once: for example, twenty years ago, in 1995, we signed an agreement on the construction of a bridge and the bridge has never been built. So it is not yet clear how things will develop. One thing is certain: the opportunities offered by the Silk Road project offer Siberian manufacturers access to the world market.
The future of Russian-Chinese relations depends on how skillfully and efficiently we can exploit this potential cooperation, protect our interests and ensure the stable development of the country.
Alexei Voskresensky: I have been involved in developing Soviet-Chinese and then Russian-Chinese relations all my life. At some point a few years ago, I got the feeling that there was nothing left for me to do in this sphere, as there was nothing to analyze, the relations at the top were good, and the economies were developing mainly in the energy sector. The constraints on the development of economic relations were quite clear. However, we are now witnessing an entirely new turn in Russian-Chinese relations.
First of all, Russian-Chinese relations have become an important factor within world politics, regardless of what has been said, of all the problems that exist, of all the discussions that are being carried out and of all the dangers involved. This is a factor within world politics. There is no point in denying it.
The second thing to note are the new opportunities and new challenges for Russia. China has initiated the Silk Road project, which promotes the economic development of the huge belt between the two macro-regions, namely Greater China and the European Union. This is the purpose that China has set for its further development, at least in this area. The project was declared by President Xi Jinping, and there is no doubt that China will move in this direction.
It has been emphasized at the conference today that this is primarily an economic project. The focus will be put on economic issues, and not on politics. This, apparently, is likely to allay existing fears that the powerful Chinese economy will crush everyone and their brothers in the region. The project has excited much interest: it offers new opportunities, loans, and additional labor force. In other words, it can give a powerful impetus to economic development in this area.
In terms of the future, this joint zone is sure to dramatically improve the economic situation in this underdeveloped central part of Eurasia and reduce social tension in the region. This can help solve the problem of international terrorism.
Russian-Chinese relations have become an important factor within world politics, regardless of what has been said, of all the problems that exist.
As for Russia, the project offers more scope for development on the one hand, but at the same time it emerges as a challenge, because we will have to create a business climate in Russia and Eurasia that will be not worse but preferably better, than the one in the economic space of the new Silk Road. If it is worse, we will face an outflow of capital and skilled workforce. This is an important development, as we previously believed that Russia could remain isolated from the outside world and build a strong economy. But in today's interdependent world, this is impossible. The imposition of sanctions has resulted in obstacles to some of Russia’s projects.
We will have to create a business climate in Russia and Eurasia that will be not worse but preferably better, than the one in the economic space of the new Silk Road.
Now we see that there are new projects, and momentum is very strong. Given our powerful bureaucracy, there is a theoretical risk that we will fail to implement them. But I don’t think that China will allow us to do that. In addition, the fear of remaining on the sidelines of this project will pique the interest of Russian business and political circles in promoting the region and participating in its development.
The main criterion for assessing the pivot of Russia’s foreign policy to the East is the level of investment, particularly in the development of the Far East and Eastern Siberia.
Sergei Kulik: In my opinion, we should now pay special attention to security as well as trade and economic issues. The main criterion for assessing the pivot of Russia’s foreign policy to the East is the level of investment, particularly in the development of the Far East and Eastern Siberia. This will be the starting point for promoting relations between Russia and Asia-Pacific countries, especially China. Investment flows are not yet at a satisfactory level. The Asia-Pacific countries are reluctant to increase available financial tranches, the current volumes of which do not meet the expectations of the Russian government. The future modernization of Russia depends on the size of investment today.
What is modernization? It is a departure from the target-oriented economy to the export of goods with high added value. Modernization implies technology. Is the Chinese side ready to share technologies with Russia? There has been some degree of doubt about this. In terms of technology, there are several levels to create the final product. The first level involves dozens of companies, but the owner is determined by the location of the headquarters and by the company’s establishment. Today, a vast majority of companies have their headquarters in the United States and in Western Europe. If Russia wants to modernize its economy, to reach a high technological level, and to promote production, we should bear in mind that China does not yet possess the required technological potential. Therefore, cutting off all ties with the West does not serve our best interests.
If we analyze car assembly plants and related industries, it seems reasonable to assess the European and American experience in South Korea and to compare it with China's achievements over the past 25 years – it’s like night and day. Are the Chinese ready to create production units in Russia that use local labor force and increase individuals’ skill level? We cannot yet say this with certainty.
If Russia wants to modernize its economy, to reach a high technological level, and to promote production, we should bear in mind that China does not yet possess the required technological potential.
The main problem is as follows. Russia has had some experience, including that during the time of the Soviet Union, in building a relationship with the West and with China. The conditions of trade and economic relations were known, personnel was trained. In its relations with modern China, Russia is entering into Terra Incognita. We have no experience of equitable cooperation. Therefore, we have to take into account development statistics, as well as the possibilities and desires of the parties. As of today, Russia’s hopes seem to go beyond China's desire to make a worthy contribution to the development of our country, rather than to import raw materials.
How do the countries of Southeast Asia perceive the strengthening of Russian-Chinese relations?
Dmitry Mosyakov: Russian-Chinese relations arouse much mistrust in Japan and in the countries of Southeast Asia. An opinion is gaining ground in the region that the United States, despite the existing treaties of friendship, is likely to enter into a major war, should China provoke it. For Japan, American guarantees are not that reliable. So now Japan is beginning to actively strengthen contacts with the American side and also deploy its own armed forces.
Vietnam and the Philippines have been increasing their military budgets as well. It is obvious that the US is putting its national interests ahead of others’ and its external obligations and commitments are put on the back burner if they run counter to the interests of Americans. Therefore, countries in the Asia-Pacific region are experiencing an acute anxiety: they are facing Chinese expansion on the one hand, and are not sure of the American determination to come to the rescue if need be, on the other hand.
How do the countries of Southeast Asia perceive Chinese initiatives, such as the Silk Road?
Countries in the Asia-Pacific region are experiencing an acute anxiety: they are facing Chinese expansion on the one hand, and are not sure of the American determination to come to the rescue if need be, on the other hand.
Dmitry Mosyakov: For the countries of Southeast Asia, the problem of the Silk Road is not a priority, because the Chinese often include these countries in this project. For example, Myanmar has joined and left the new Silk Road at the initiative of China more than once. It is the controversial security issues that are coming to the fore now. One of the most pressing problems is China’s construction of artificial islands in the South China Sea. Before proceeding to the global Chinese project, a new code of conduct in the South China Sea has to be signed. I believe that these issues are being prioritized in Southeast Asia today, rather than participation in global projects.
Prepared for publication by RIAC Senior Web Editor Daria Khaspekova and RIAC Portal Editor Maria Gurova
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