Real and imaginary missile threat

Although current U.S. plans for the European missile defense do not pose a threat to Russian strategic nuclear forces, the Russian military and political leadership is seriously concerned about the fact, that the development of missile defense systems could at some stage undermine the established strategic balance. Until now, the U.S. and its allies haven’t shown any interest in developing the cooperation with Russia in missile defense, but an opportunity for the dialogue between Russia and NATO on missile defense is still possible.

Although current U.S. plans for the European missile defense do not pose a threat to Russian strategic nuclear forces, the Russian military and political leadership is seriously concerned about the fact, that the development of missile defense systems could at some stage undermine the established strategic balance. Until now, the U.S. and its allies haven’t shown any interest in developing the cooperation with Russia in missile defense, but an opportunity for the dialogue between Russia and NATO on missile defense is still possible.

The European approach to missile defense

Recently, the antagonisms between Russia and the West over missile defense have seriously aggravated. On September 13, 2011 an agreement between U.S. and Romania on the deployment of U.S. missile defense facility in Romania, at its air base in Deveselu, was signed. In the area of 175 hectares by the year 2015 there will be deployed American antimissiles, such as SM-3 (SM-3 Block IB), which will be served up to 200 U.S. military. In addition, there will be also deployed a missile defense radar and a suite of command associated with it, as well as control and communications system "Aegis".

This arrangement is an important part of the second stage of the so-called "European phased adaptive approach" to the deployment of missile defense systems, about which the U.S. President Barack Obama told in September, 2009. Almost at the same time, Washington concluded agreements with Turkey on the deployment in the south-east of the country the anti-missile radar, forward-based AN/TPY-2 and with Spain – on the deployment of four ships with SM-3 interceptor missiles and a system of "Aegis" on the Spanish territory.

Russia’s fears

It is unlikely, that the U.S. antimissiles in Romania and in Spain will be able to pose a real threat to Russia's strategic potential - a system of this type with a maximum speed of 2.7 km / s and a range of 500 km is not able to intercept intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs). However, the second step must be followed by the third and fourth, during which it is supposed to deploy more advanced antimissiles (Block IIA) in Poland, and in the future - to replace them with an even more advanced system (Block IIB),which is able to intercept ICBMs. It should be noted that the missile SM-3 type is considered sufficiently reliable. Out of the 27 tests conducted since 2002, 22 have proved successful, - it is a completely unattainable result for missiles such as GBI, from the deployment of which in Poland in 2009 Barack Obama has refused. But the point is not just the technical capabilities of U.S. missile defense systems deployed within the framework of the "adaptive phased approach." Russian military and political leadership is seriously concerned about the fact, that the development of missile defense systems could at some stage undermine the established strategic balance. As it was pointed out by the leading Russian expert Alexei Arbatov, "... many people in Russia feel, that the missile defense program is hardly limited by the opposition to the Iranian threat, and there is clearly something Americans are not telling ... The key issue for Moscow is whether this global missile defense system could turn against Russia" [1].

On the issue of cooperation

Photo: Missile Defense Agency
Mobile X-band radar system AN/TPY-2

It is known that the Russian side has repeatedly proposed to Washington to establish a joint Russian-American missile defense system (e.g., such a proposal was made by Vladimir Putin at the meeting with George W. Bush in Kennebunkport in July 2007). Dmitry Medvedev has also made a similar proposal. Russia has offered the concept of a common "sectored" missile defense, according to which Russia and NATO would defend each other against missile threats.

However, the Lisbon (November, 2010), NATO summit rejected the Russian initiative and welcomed the U.S. proposed "phased adaptive approach" allowing it to develop its anti-missile systems in Europe as a significant contribution to NATO's European missile defense architecture. It has been agreed, that the NATO missile defense system will be established during the period from 2011 to 2021, and its final configuration will be determined by the existing and emerging missile threats, the availability of technology and other factors. However, it is already clear that it will be based on the elements of the U.S. global missile defense - positioning areas of interceptor missiles in Poland and Romania, as well as anti-missile 'Aegis' system equipped ships in the Mediterranean, the North and, possibly, in the Black and the Barents Seas.

Many influential Russian and Western experts consider the cooperation between NATO and Russia in missile defense possible and desirable. In February, 2012 a report "Missile defense: a new paradigm", prepared by the members of the "Euro-Atlantic Security Initiative" commission was published. Among the report's authors are renowned professionals, such as R. Legvold and C. Hadley (USA), A. Dynkin and V. Esin (Russia), J. Lanksad (France), etc. In their opinion, the U.S. / NATO and Russia could create one or more centers for cooperation served by a mixed staff, where all information about missile launches from the satellites and radar sensors of the parties would be accumulated. The gathered data and information will be circulated simultaneously to the command and control centers of the U.S. / NATO and Russia. The authors believe that the sharing of information in these specially organized centers will enhance the effectiveness of the defense of each member [2].

Moscow vs. Washington

In a statement made by the President of Russia on November 23, 2011 in connection with the situation that has developed around NATO missile defense system in Europe it was stated that so far the U.S. and its allies hadn’t showed any interest in the development of cooperation with Russia in missile defense: "The United States of America, followed by other NATO members has not demonstrated a serious willingness to move forward in this direction. It is not going, at least today, to take into account our concerns about the architecture of the European missile defense at this stage to make be convinced that their plans are not directed against Russia". In this regard, Dmitry Medvedev announced that Russia's actions, which include, inter alia, putting into operation the early warning radar system for missile interception in Kaliningrad, increasing cover objects of strategic nuclear forces, equipping strategic ballistic missile complexes capable of overcoming missile defense and new highly effective combat units. In addition, the armed forces have an objective to develop measures to ensure, if necessary, the destruction of information and control units of a missile defense system. "If these measures are not efficient enough, the Russian Federation will deploy both in the west and the south of the country modern percussion weapons systems that provide fire destruction of the European component of missile defense", - said Dmitry Medvedev.

However, the dialogue between Russia and the United States, Russia and NATO on missile defense is continuing and it gives hope that a compromise on this issue is possible. Thus, a number of Russian and Western experts offer the creation of a Russian-American joint data exchange center on early warning systems and notifications of missile launches, in accordance with the Memorandum of Understanding between the Russian Federation and the United States, signed in June 2000 [3]. They also put forward proposals for the development of joint missile threats criteria and methods to counter these threats.

It should be emphasized huge Russia's experience in the field of missile defense (primarily located in Mingechaur and near Armavir radars of the Russian early warning system to detect missile launches from the south) arouses interest among American specialists [4].

The future of missile defense

It seems that Russia and the West have still time to resolve this problem. According to the shared opinion of prominent Russian experts (V. Esin, V. Dvorkin, and others), over the next 10-15 years, the U.S. missile defense will not be able to significantly affect Russia's nuclear deterrent. [5]

Indeed, the U.S. plans increase the degree of strategic uncertainty in the world, and it will surely force the military to think in terms of the "worst-case scenario". This does not mean that Russia and NATO should re-start the "cold war" and a full-scale arms race. It is only about the current administration's plans, which may not be fully implemented until 2020. It is remarkable, that the last test of the anti missile SM-3 Block IB in September, 2011 was a complete failure. Pentagon intends to purchase 300 units of these antimissiles during the next five years and expand them in Romania.

We can be absolutely sure that this very expensive program will survive the coming inevitable shrinkage of the Pentagon's budget. Nevertheless, Moscow will continue to closely monitor the U.S. missile plans in the immediate vicinity of its borders and will not hesitate if the necessity to take action arises.

1. A. Arbatov, Nuclear disarmament: a dead end or pause? / / World Economy and International Relations. 2012. №2. p.11.

2. Missile defense: to a new paradigm. Moscow: Carnegie Endowment, 2012. p. 2-12.

3. Memorandum of Understanding between the Russian Federation and the United States to establish a joint data exchange center on early warning systems and notifications of missile launches. 04.06.2000 / / Bulletin of International Treaties. In 2000 №8. p.73.

4. A.Anin U.S. missile defense - undermines the confidence of potential / / World Economy and International Relations. In 2012. № 3. p. 19, the Euro-Atlantic security space / Ed. A. Dynkin, I.Ivanova. M. LENAND, 2011. p.409.

5. Euro-Atlantic security space / Ed. A. Dynkin, I. Ivanova. M. LENAND, 2011. pp. 402-403.