Pakistan: Sharif Unlikely to Right the Sinking Ship
Nawaz Sharif, Pakistan Prime Minister
(no votes) |
(0 votes) |
Freelance reporter based in Kolkata, RIAC expert
Pakistan is already one of the least stable countries in the world, and although its change in government may bring some hope and even progress in the coming months, the situation is likely to deteriorate over the next five years.
Pakistan is already one of the least stable countries in the world, and although its change in government may bring some hope and even progress in the coming months, the situation is likely to deteriorate over the next five years.
Pakistan is in the midst of several violent internal conflicts. Near the border with Afghanistan, in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) province, U.S. and Pakistani security forces are fighting the Taliban, Al Qaeda and other militant groups. In the southwest, in Balochistan province, Baloch nationalist-separatists are battling Pakistani security forces. In the southeast, in the capital of Sindh province, Karachi, members of ethnic-based political parties have been slaughtering each other by the hundreds.
“Only” 6,059 people were killed and 2,949 injured in targeted killings, bomb blasts, land mine explosions, military operations, mortar attacks and other violent incidents in 2012, according to the Islamabad-based Center for Research & Security Studies (CRSS). That made it a relatively peaceful year for the troubled country, indicating a 15 percent decline in violence from the previous year.
Given this situation, it should be no surprise that Washington DC-based nonprofit The Fund for Peace ranked Pakistan near the bottom of its 2012 Failed States Index. The list ran from Finland (177th) to Somalia (1st), and Pakistan ranked 13th. There may not be any change in its position, since that depends on developments in so many other countries, but the situation within its borders looks set to worsen.
Nawaz Sharif’s Return
Sharif’s landslide victory in the May 11 elections was not enough to give him a free hand to implement his favored policies. While battling for power in that arena, he’ll also have to deal with the country’s national security establishment.
Right-wing business tycoon Nawaz Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PMLN) swept the May 11 elections, decimating the incumbent Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) and leaving Imran Khan’s upstart Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaf (PTI) in the dust. But the PMLN really only won one of Pakistan’s provinces, taking control (for the moment) of only one house of the country’s bicameral Parliament.
It took 124 of the 272 contested seats in the lower house of Parliament, the National Assembly. Of those, 118 were from Punjab province, home to more than half the country’s population. The party also won provincial assembly elections in Punjab, and Nawaz’s brother Shahbaz Sharif heads the government there [1].
All this has left Nawaz Sharif open to jibes about being “prime minister of Punjab,” and questions about how effectively he will be able to rule the rest of the country. The Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaf will lead the government in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, the Pakistan People’s Party will lead the government in Sindh, and a three-party coalition involving the PMLN will run the government in Balochistan.
The PTI won the second-largest share of the vote – though not the second-largest number of seats – and is likely to style itself as a strong opposition to Sharif’s government at the national level. The Islamabad-based, Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz -led national government will likely also find it difficult to work with the upper house of parliament (if it remains under Pakistan People’s Party control), the opposition party-led provincial governments in Sindh and KPK, and the coalition government in Balochistan.
All this means Sharif’s landslide victory in the May 11 elections was not enough to give him a free hand to implement his favored policies. It only won him a relatively strong position in the fractured free-for-all that is civilian governance in Pakistan. While battling for power in that arena, he’ll also have to deal with the country’s national security establishment.
New(ish) Leader, New Challenges
Pervez Musharraf
Sharif may be saved from another military coup by virtue of the fact that the military reportedly does not want the nasty job of running a country at war with itself and an economy in shambles.
Sharif has pledged to revive the economy, normalize relations with India, launch peace talks with the Taliban, and end U.S. drone strikes within Pakistan. These are all daunting goals, likely to be made even more difficult by his old nemesis, Pakistan’s powerful and conservative security establishment.
Sharif’s previous term as prime minister was cut short in 1999, when he tried to discipline then Army chief Pervez Musharraf for his role in the botched “intrusion” that led Pakistan into the Kargil War with India. Musharraf responded with a coup, taking over as military leader of the country until 2008. Meanwhile, Sharif jetted off to exile in Saudi Arabia on a private aircraft sent by that country’s royal family.
By 2008, the situation had reversed: Sharif had returned and Musharraf was forced into exile. He returned to contest the May 11 elections, but quickly found himself disqualified and arrested. Since trying Musharraf risks embarrassing and angering the security establishment, Sharif had reportedly been urging him to leave the country fast. But in late June, Musharraf was still in the country and it appeared the government was gearing up to try him for treason.That would complicate Sharif's sffort to build a good working relationship with current Army chief Ashfaq Kayani – if such an effort ever really had a chance. Kayani and his men were always unlikely to look kindly on Sharif’s plans to launch inquiries into Pakistan’s role in the Kargil War and the November 26 attack in Mumbai. They’re also likely to resist Sharif’s efforts to launch peace talks with the Taliban and normalize relations with India.
Sharif may be saved from another military coup by virtue of the fact that the military reportedly does not want the nasty job of running a country at war with itself and an economy in shambles. But tensions between Sharif’s civilian government and the security establishment are likely to stymie his policy initiatives.
From Bad to Worse
The Pakistani Taliban leader Hakimullah Mehsud
As these internal factors limit efforts by Sharif and other Pakistani leaders to address the many challenges facing their country, external events will worsen the situation. Of particular concern is the drawdown of U.S. troops in Afghanistan, scheduled to start next year.
As the United States and its allies reduce their presence in Afghanistan, the Taliban is expected to launch an all-out offensive against President Hamid Karzai’s government in Kabul. The Afghan National Army probably will not be able to decisively quash this offensive, and a civil war – or something approaching it – is likely. In this conflict, the Taliban is likely to expand the swath of Afghan territory that it controls.
Combined with a reduction in U.S. drone strikes against militants in Afghanistan and Pakistan, this would allow militants a “safer-haven” to regroup and grow stronger. Peace overtures and Taliban-friendly attitudes from the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz government in Islamabad and the Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaf government in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa would give militants even more breathing room. The question is what they would do with it – lay down their arms, or expand their operations.
The answer is that, while the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan emerged in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa after 9/11 to wage against NATO forces in Afghanistan, they are not going to lay down their arms and submit to the authority of Pakistan’s government just because the United States cuts the number of military personnel it has stationed in Afghanistan, and lowers the number of drone strikes it inflicts on Pakistan. It will keep fighting.
If Sharif decides to leave the TTP and its allies alone – and the military cooperates – that would allow the militants to increase and solidify their sphere of influence. This area could then be used as a base from which to launch and support operations in the rest of the region, including Afghanistan, Kashmir, China’s Xinjiang province, the former Soviet states of Central Asia and possibly even the Caucasus. This could provoke covert or overt interventions from abroad.
If Sharif abandons plans for peace with the militants in Pakistan’s northwest border areas, and attempts to use the military to impose Islamabad’s control there, he is unlikely to succeed. An invading “Punjabi” army fighting a popular local guerilla force that has support from within a lawless Afghanistan and a beyond-the-law Pakistani security establishment would face an extremely protracted conflict at best – and more likely – a loss.
And remember, this is only one of Pakistan’s internal conflicts. The violence in Balochistan, Karachi, and elsewhere will also present challenges to the government in Islamabad.
A Deeper Problem
Pakistan's External Debt
Lurking behind all these headline-grabbing issues, though, is a more fundamental problem: the economy. Its failure means the country’s already inadequate public services are deteriorating, further eroding the government’s legitimacy and stability. One of the things that brought down the PPP government was its inability to keep the lights on.
The World Economic Forum’s 2012-13 Global Competitiveness Index (GCI) ran from Switzerland (1) to Burundi (144) and put Pakistan in 124th place. Poor governance, corruption, an energy shortage, economic isolation, crippling debt, and a downward spiral of low infrastructure investment undermining economic growth which means less revenue for the government to invest in infrastructure all contribute to its problems, according to the GCI.
The country has been running budget deficits for years, and has borrowed so much to fill the holes that it is now spending nearly half its annual budget on repayments and interest. In 2012-13, the government budgeted 43 percent of its expenditures for these two expenses, only 2% for education and less than 1% was for health services.
One of the things that brought down the PPP government was its inability to keep the lights on.
Meanwhile, it is reportedly running out of foreign exchange reserves to pay for imports and make external debt payments – its central bank reportedly has only enough to pay for 1.5 more months of imports [2]. Since Pakistan is too broke to import much, and too broken to export much, it is becoming an increasingly unattractive trading partner.
In an attempt to tackle Pakistan’s difficult fiscal situation, austerity measures and an unpopular International Monetary Fund bailout are said to be in the works. This is likely to mean even more cuts in spending, reducing the already too-small amount of funds spent on public services.
Public infrastructure seems set to get even worse, hobbling the economy, leaving more people poor and unemployed. “Power outages are estimated to cut growth by 2 percentage points annually,” according to the Asian Development Bank’s 2013 forecast for the country, making it “unlikely that Pakistan will be able, without significant reform, to move toward the 7% growth rate needed to generate adequate employment and meaningful poverty reduction”.
As the number of poorly educated, unemployed young people in Pakistan grows, more will likely join one of the country’s insurgencies, its street-gang-like political parties, or its criminal outfits. They will be given power, purpose, and the possibility of glory.
As the number of poorly educated, unemployed young people in Pakistan grows, more will likely join one of the country’s insurgencies, its street-gang-like political parties, or its criminal outfits. They will be given power, purpose, and the possibility of glory. Even those who choose peaceful paths will likely become increasingly frustrated with the failure of successive governments to produce meaningful improvements in their quality of life – and they will find some way to vent this frustration.
As internal conflicts rage, the civilian government faces off against the military leadership, militant groups grab more territory and power from the government, the economy crumbles and the youth languishes in frustration and fury, the chances for more serious instability in Pakistan will increase.
1. PMLN wins provincial assembly elections in Punjab: http://www.ecp.gov.pk/overallpartypositionPA130620131639.pdf Shahbaz Sharif takes oath as Punjab chief minister: http://tribune.com.pk/story/559678/shahbaz-sharif-elected-punjab-chief-minister/
2. According to local media reports, the SPB's liquid foreign exchange reserves at the end of May were $6.4 billion. While Pakistan’s May 2013 imports stood at $4.3 billion.
(no votes) |
(0 votes) |
