With the final victory over Muammar Gaddafi’s Jamahiriya approaching, friendly rhetoric of the National Transitional Council directed at the western coalition seems more and more low-key. However, it is only at first glance.
The events of 2011 showed that the country until recently considered a pariah of the international community, has a wide circle of friends. However, this "friendship" is not entirely selfless (for details go to "The Overthrow of Gaddafi: Prospects for Energy Companies in Libya").
It was largely due to the active support of the NATO coalition that the Libyan rebels succeeded in overthrowing Muammar Gaddafi. In mid-September the UN recognized the National Transitional Council (NTC) as the legitimate power in Libya granting a seat in the General Assembly to the representative of the Council.
As the civil war in Libya is about to be won by the NTC, there comes the moment to sum up preliminary results and review the development options of a new Libyan state. It is obvious that the coalition countries continue to provide significant support to NTC. To illustrate, the EU has lifted sanctions from six Libya's ports, several oil companies and banks.
Western Assistance
In early September Paris hosted an international conference of "Friends of Libya" attended by senior representatives of 60 countries, including Russia and China, as well as eight international organizations.
At the conference the French President Nicolas Sarkozy said that its members have decided to unlock $ 15 billion belonging to Gaddafi and his allies. As the French leader added "we have decided to unfreeze the assets of Libya's past to finance the development of Libya's future».
In addition, according to Finance Minister of France Francois Baroin, the "Group of Eight" countries invited the NTC of Libya to join the Deauville Partnership – a program of support for social and economic reforms in the "Arab spring» countries.
It is noteworthy that the world media have not reported any discussion by the "Friends of Libya" or the NTC of a specific program of economic development. What is clear, however, that given the importance of the energy sector to the economy of Libya, a significant part of Qaddafi’s assets transferred by the West will be channeled into the restoration of the energy infrastructure, something that is in the interests of both the West and the National Transition Council.Thus, by returning Libya its own assets and bringing the NTC to power, the West intends to obtain additional advantages in the allocation of energy and construction contracts.
The Winners’ Visit
In mid-September, French President Nicolas Sarkozy and British Prime Minister David Cameron were the first western leaders to visit Libya after the NTC seized power in Tripoli.
Speaking of the aim of the visit of the initiators of external interference in the affairs of Jamahiriya, Sarkozy stressed that despite the support provided by the new authorities, France does not expect to receive any privileges in Libya. In his turn, Cameron confirmed that Britain will help NTC to receive the funds frozen in the accounts of the Gaddafi regime.
There is reason to believe that by such statements high-ranking representatives of France and Britain seek to demonstrate their respect for the Libyan people. It is common knowledge that the majority of the Muslim population of Libya continues to look upon the West as colonialists.
In all likelihood, the aim of Sarkozy’s and Cameron’s visit to Libya was to have personal meetings with the leaders of groups making up the NTC which hold different views on the future of Libya -- from liberal to radical Islamist. In the present context it is important for the leaders of the Western world to determine the most reliable ally which would officially defend the interests of Libya and at the same time avoid a real confrontation with the West.
During the visit the parties might have discussed the formation of a new Libyan government, with its composition later approved by the NTC members.
However, it is quite possible that the inflow of foreign currency into the NTC-controlled accounts in the absence of an agreed program of further economic development would aggravate the already serious tensions between the members of the Council. This would weaken the potential of the new Libyan authorities and enable the parties to the coalition to maintain "manual" control of the country. Tensions in Libya could serve as a pretext for setting up military bases on its territory, officially for "protecting civilians" and in reality -- for establishing control over the transportation of raw materials.
Islamic Shell of the New Libya
Currently, the NTC has assumed responsibility for ensuring stability in Libya. If the situation in the country does not improve under the new rule, the number of supporters of ousted Gaddafi would increase. With this in mind, for the sake of retaining power it is essential for the new government to catch Gaddafi as quickly as possible until he has become the embodiment of struggle against "Western tyranny" for the opponents of the new regime.
In order to increase its credibility among the wide sections of the population the NTC is most likely to try to deliberately distance itself from Western influence. The future of Libya seems to closely involve the Islamization of the social and political life. In his first policy speech in the "liberated" Tripoli, the head of the NTC, Mustafa Abdel Jalil promised to build "a modern moderate Islamic state" in the country where Sharia will be the basis of legislation.
In case the model of government is based on Sharia, closer integration of Libya with other Islamic countries should be expected, perhaps with the exception of Iran.
Turkey has already come forward as one of the main allies of the new Libya. On September 16 Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan arrived in Tripoli to express support for the new government of the country.
Turkey which helped the NTC during the civil war has every reason to expect that $15 billion worth construction contracts concluded under Gaddafi will be honored.
It is expected that the new Libya will strengthen cooperation with Arab states, especially with the NATO-friendly Gulf monarchies. The Gulf Cooperation Council of Arab States (GCC) back in March 2011 joined the "international coalition under the UN Security Council resolution." Moreover, the Air Forces of Qatar and the UAE even took an active part in the West’s air operations in Libya "in the name of security".
Fears expressed by the NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen about the possible strengthening of Islamic extremists in the new Libya are nothing short of surprise. Suffice it to recall that during the war the NATO coalition actively helped the brigade of Abdelhakim Belhadj, the founder of the organization "The Libyan Islamic Fighting Group" which until recently was considered by the USA and Great Britain as a terrorist group. Currently Abdelhakim Belhadj is the head of the Military Council of Tripoli.
Admittedly the mentality of the population of modern Libya is such that it is not ready for the transition to Western-style democracy. Besides there is no reputable leader in the country enjoying the support of the population and sharing the values of liberalism. In view of that the Islamists have a good chance of winning the next elections.
Alternative to Western Patronage is Unlikely
Under the conditions of further Islamisation of the country from the top , the new rulers of Libya continue to maintain close ties with the West. Despite having the status of an official government the NTC does not have domestic political resources that would enable it to make decisions without consulting its Western patrons. The Council is in fact hostage to the political interests of the West.
Theoretically, the way out of this situation would be to strengthen cooperation with major powers of the developing world, especially China. In reality, however, it is not that simple because even the BRIC countries are not ready to openly confront the economic policy of the West. Although it cannot be ruled out that China will actively defend its interests in Libya and will try to refocus foreign economic views of the NTC.
China, which does not intervene, unlike the West, in the internal affairs of sovereign states, may become an excellent partner for the NTC. As the experience of Chinese companies in Africa shows, China willingly accepts payment in the form of oil and minerals for the implementation of projects and rendering of services. Since such conditions are not as a rule acceptable to the West, China retains certain competitive advantages. At the same time attempts of the West to impose its policy on the new Libya may prod the NTC to cooperate more closely with China. Besides, China knows how to wait and offer the best deals at the right time. Therefore, Beijing could embark upon its strategy of "friendly expansion" at a time when the government of Libya becomes disappointed with the West.
Russia, of course, can expect offers of cooperation from the NTC, but one should not exaggerate the importance of our country to the Arab world. Russia's influence is not commensurate with the role played by the Soviet Union in resolving conflicts in the countries of the region, both for objective and subjective reasons.
First, Russia, unlike the Soviet Union, is not ready to provide financial support to Arab countries.
Second, the industrial products of modern Russia, with the exception of weapons, are on the whole uncompetitive on the Arab markets.
Third, in many Arab countries the specialists who received training in the Soviet Union and were our friends are being replaced by experts oriented to the West.
That is why any contracts that may be offered to Russia by the new Libyan authorities should be regarded as "a courtesy".
There is no question that, having attained the goal of uniting all the Libyan opposition – the overthrow and condemnation of Gaddafi - the rebels would like to become true masters of their country, to determine by themselves the future of numerous hydrocarbon deposits and the multi-billion dollar contracts signed under the previous regime. However, there is reason to believe that, with the technological gap between Libya and the developed world and lack of unity in the power echelons, in the foreseeable future Libya will continue to put up with foreign influence, mostly from the West and to a lesser degree – from China.
