Geneva II: Place to Establish Official Contacts

Interview

In his interview with RIAC, Dmitry Trenin, Director of Carnegie Moscow Centre and RIAC member, offers his comments on the interim results of Geneva II and Russian-U.S. cooperation in assisting to resolve the conflict in Syria.

Interview

In his interview with RIAC, Dmitry Trenin, Director of Carnegie Moscow Centre and RIAC member, offers his comments on the interim results of Geneva II and Russian-U.S. cooperation in assisting to resolve the conflict in Syria.

The main mission of the Geneva II Conference was to bring together the government forces and the opposition in Syria to negotiate the end of the civil war. What do you think about the results of the conference so far?

The main outcome of the conference is the fact that it has commenced, and its participants include both the Syrian government and a major part of the opposition. It appears the process is under way. It will be long and painful one. We should hardly expect that a solution will be “forged” at the negotiation table. It is more likely that Geneva will serve as a place where official contacts can be established and, in the more distant future, where an agreement will be officially implemented. For this agreement to be reached, it is not enough to only have the Syrian parties at the table. The conflict in Syria is part of a regional showdown between Saudi Arabia and Iran which is not represented in Geneva. The most powerful of the opposition groups consist of Islamist fighters close to al-Qaeda. Any agreement with them is ruled out as a matter of principle. Therefore, it will be appropriate to record some limited successes so far thanks to diplomatic efforts by the super powers, recognizing meanwhile that the conference has not put an end to a war that continues to kill scores of people every day.

Dmitry Trenin

Will Geneva II have any impact on Russian-U.S. cooperation in the peace settlement in Syria?Many observers have noted that the 2013 agreements between Russia and the U.S. on the destruction of chemical weapons could help make Russian-U.S. relations “warmer” in general. Was there any feeling of such warmth at the Montreux meeting?

Cooperation between Russia and the US on Syria has demonstrated that Moscow and Washington can collaborate productively even when they are in a serious quarrel. This cooperation became possible just when the Russia-U.S. relationship had reached the “point of equality”. At a certain point both parties saw their interests coinciding and they started to need one another. This is not a strategic turning point, nor is it detente. However, relations between Moscow and Washington have matured to a point where neither side has any illusions left about the other while their acute differences are no obstacle to cooperation where it is needed. Therefore, while attesting to successful cooperation on Syrian chemical disarmament and on Geneva II, it is hardly correct to expect a “global warming” in Russian-US relations. It would be advisable instead to look for points of common interest and cooperation whilst disregarding the polluted general political atmosphere within bilateral relations. Syria, and not Syria alone, shows this is possible.

Syria's envoy to the United Nations Bashar
Jaafari speaks and shows a document during
a news conference after the Geneva-2 peace
talks in Montreux January 22, 2014

What do you see as the immediate steps that should be taken by Russia and the U.S. after Geneva II to facilitate the resolution of the conflict in Syria?

Now that the negotiations are underway, there should be an added focus on the humanitarian issues of the ongoing war in Syria. One needs to strive, wherever possible, for a local ceasefire and access to humanitarian aid for the civilians who have ended up as hostages and the main victims in this war. Washington and Moscow could try and influence opposition armed groups and the government forces so that they might allow at least some of the Syrian communities to have a little respite from the war. Later there should be efforts leading to a general truce between the government forces and the opposition supported by the West. It is important, strategically, to push the warring sides to partner against a common foe, namely the Islamists from the “Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant” or the Al-Nusra Front.

Interviewed by Natalia Evtikhevich, RIAC Programme Manager