Cambodia at the Beginning of a Long Way

Interview

Head of the RAS Institute for Oriental Studies Center for Southeast Asia, Australia and Oceania Studies, Doctor in History and Professor Dmitry Mosyakov shares his insights with RIAC on the political and economic situation in Cambodia, and the country’s relations with China and Vietnam.

Interview

Head of the RAS Institute for Oriental Studies Center for Southeast Asia, Australia and Oceania Studies, Doctor in History and Professor Dmitry Mosyakov shares his insights with RIAC on the political and economic situation in Cambodia, and the country’s relations with China and Vietnam.

Dr. Mosyakov, what is the current state of the Cambodian economy, and how would you describe the country’s model of development?

The Cambodian economy is now on the rise. The country is showing relatively high rates of economic growth. Cambodia is successfully combining significant Chinese investment with access to the American market, primarily in the footwear and textile industries.

At one time, Western countries assisted Cambodia by granting Khmer textile products a remission of taxation. This was done to encourage the growth of the labor force and economic activity in the country, allowing more people to earn their living. Although this tax exemption is no longer in effect, the Cambodian textile industry (and the footwear industry to a lesser extent) has managed to produce tangible results and become profitable. T-shirts, shirts, pants, and shoes produced in Cambodia are flooding the U.S. and European markets.

At the same time, Cambodia is the closest political ally of China in Southeast Asia, and is developing cooperation with it and enjoying Chinese support. The Chinese are willingly investing in the Cambodian economy, particularly in the banking sector.

Thus, Cambodia, on the one hand, is pursuing an open market policy with the West, and on the other hand, attracting investment from China and maintaining a good relationship with it. All this helps to create a favorable environment for the growth of the Cambodian economy. In addition, Southeast Asia as a whole is displaying rather strong economic activity, and Cambodia is taking full advantage of opportunities offered to it.

Do you believe the economic policies pursued by the current political leadership of Cambodia are correct?

The opposition and the government of Cambodia have no significant differences over economic policy. However, the government in place is heavily corrupt, and the opposition argues that without pervasive corruption, the country would have developed faster and more efficiently.

Moreover, the country now is no longer facing the problem of choosing an economic model of development: that choice has already been made and allows for development at a steady enough pace of 6.5 percent of GDP growth per year. The main internal problem of Cambodia is a political one. The Cambodian People's Party has been in power since the 1993 elections. Hun Sen became prime minister in 1998 and continues to hold this post. Moreover, the composition of the ruling elite has not changed during these years. Since all these people are notorious for corruption and political scandals, the problem of the power elite is quite pressing.

Do you believe that a change of power in Cambodia is likely in the near future?

Dmitry Mosyakov

The ruling party gained 68 seats and the opposition – 55 seats in the last parliamentary elections, which were held in July 2013. Since then, Cambodia has been facing an extremely difficult political situation. The leader of the opposition, Sam Rainsy, who is an energetic and radical nationalist politician, accuses the ruling party of electoral fraud and refuses to recognize the results of the elections. As a result, Cambodia cannot convene the National Assembly due to constant skirmishes and large demonstrations organized by the opposition. Hun Sen and the People's Party now rule without the National Assembly and are ignoring the opposition.

The People's Party is becoming more and more a peasant one, drawing on conservative circles, while Sam Rainsy’s Cambodia National Rescue Party enjoys the support of the urban population, students and the youth. For a long time it was thought that Sam Rainsy had been fomenting a revolution, but the revolution in Cambodia did not happen, since the People's Party is traditionally totalitarian and easily resorts to force.

In addition, Sam Rainsy seriously talks about Big Cambodia, the so-called Kampuchea. If the opposition comes to power, and Cambodia begins to conduct a relevant foreign policy, this might become a serious problem for Vietnam. Therefore, this seemingly unimportant internal conflict in Cambodia could lead to a serious change in the balance of forces in Southeast Asia.

As is known, China and Vietnam are actively involved in the economic life of Cambodia. Is this is due to the real economic interests of these countries or the desire to gain political influence within Cambodia?

For China, Cambodia is a country with which it maintains a very close cooperation within the framework of ASEAN. Together with Laos and Myanmar, Cambodia forms a block that increasingly gravitates towards China. The main flow of Chinese investment in the region is directed towards these least developed and most dependent countries.

Vietnam is also interested in preserving the existing political regime in Cambodia because of the nationalistic and anti-Vietnamese propaganda of the Cambodian opposition.

You have mentioned a group which includes Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar. Vietnam belongs to this group too. How do you assess the position of this group in the regional economy? Can we regard this group as an established bloc with a common economic or political position in the region?

To call this group an established bloc would be somewhat farfetched, although historically Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia were the countries in Indochina that followed the socialist way of development. The political parties that came out of this common organization still rule in these countries. Except for Vietnam, they are the least developed countries in the region. Poverty and geography account for their special relationship with China. But I would rather speak of a group composed of Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia because of the special relationship among these states and their ruling elites, namely the People's Party in Cambodia, the People's Revolutionary Party in Laos, and the Communist Party in Vietnam. In my opinion, these Indochina countries still represent a certain political organization within the ASEAN framework. Whether Myanmar can be included in this group is hard to say.

However, I wouldn’t combine them into a separate political grouping within ASEAN, which influences the ASEAN policies and speaks with one voice. These countries, especially Laos, Cambodia and Myanmar, have yet to do much to make their voice heard. Despite the successful development of Cambodia and the moderate development of Laos, they still remain among the poorest countries in the region, and have yet to make great strides to approach at least Indonesia or Thailand. They have to travel a long way.

Interviewer: RIAC Portal Coordinator Daria Khaspekova.