Secession of Armenia from the USSR is directly linked to Karabakh issue. Nagorno-Karabakh conflict even 20 years after remains the key unhealed rift of Transcaucasus.
Secession of Armenia from the USSR is directly linked to Karabakh issue. Nagorno-Karabakh conflict even 20 years after remains the key unhealed rift of Transcaucasus.
In 1991 Armenia, like nearly all newly independent ex-Soviet republics, was faced with the most complicated situation. In addition to independence officially declared on September 21, Armenia also got a pile of troubles. First of all a young republic was struggling to remedy the consequences of 1988 earthquake. Victims of this tragedy had to be taken care of and funds to recover the damage were to be raised. Secondly, the Karabakh conflict, that definitely had a long pre-history and background erupted right amid the weakening of the centralized power and disintegration of the USSR. Both for Armenia and for Azerbaijan this conflict became the key issue of the post-Soviet 20 years.
Price tag - Karabakh
Armenian political elite contrary to its neighbor countries was neither obeisant nor compassionate to Moscow and following several unsuccessful attempt to force in a preferred solution for Karabakh shifted towards independence. Essentially a national movement for the reunification of Nagorny Karabakh with Armenia became a catalyst of a centrifugal trend. “Miatsum” (unity) praised by Armenian activists at the first unauthorized meeting on February 13, 1988 turned into a slogan and idea of Karabakh political campaign, that rapidly evolved into a nation-wide movement for independence.
Unfortunately the Union center was not ready to face these developments. In particular, in 1998 neither Mikhail Gorbachev nor his team managed to start a dialog with the leaders of Armenian opposition, which became one of the reasons to create Armenian All-national movement (AAM). Worsening of living standards caused complaints against the policy of Moscow that consequently boosted the popularity of autonomy and independence ideas among Transcaucasus people, becoming the most obvious in Armenia.
Ethnic cleansing and nearly official exchanges (often looking like a deportation) of refugees represented by non-title citizens for both republics also were bringing grist to the mill of independence and within 1989 turned into a system of relations between Baku and Erevan. The exchange of patients from two mental hospitals on the border between two countries became the peak of this ethnic madness. [1].
Early 1991 the threat of the Union disintegration became obvious. To prevent this from happening Gorbachev, whose power was quickly vanishing, initiated the drafting and signing of a new Union treaty which implied the delegation of wider authorities to the republics from the Center. Among all Transcaucasian republics only Azerbaijan agreed to joint the drafting of the treaty and to stay within the Union, but under certain conditions (and a key one was – urgent measures in Nagorno-Karabakh). Moscow decided to support Azerbaijani powers in the severe suppression of Karabakh movement and in January 1991 Central Committee of the CPSU resolved to undertake a special operation in Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Region for the disarmament of illegal paramilitaries. In return Azerbaijan on March 17, 1991 participated in the nation-wide referendum about the future of the USSR and supported its preservation within the framework of a new Union treaty while Armenia boycotted the referendum.
The subsequent disintegration of the USSR put the conflicting parties face to face in armed confrontation. That’s why rushing expansion of the inter-ethnic conflict and helplessness of the Union center became the major reasons fro Armenia to secede from the USSR.
Running voyage
When Azerbaijan and Armenia got independence, the conflict unresolved within the USSR became inter-state and international by itself. New states were hastily recognized by the international community within the borders existent in the USSR. A full-scale armed conflict that flared up in 1991 was terminated only in May 1994 with the singing of agreements on the cease fire regime and beginning of peaceful negotiations under the aegis of OSCE Minsk group (co-chaired by Russia, France and USA). By 1994 both conflicting parties having suffered casualties and material losses were exhausted by the war.
Contrary to the neighbor countries in the region Armenia left the Union in 1991 following the Soviet legislation on secession.
It should be noted that nearly all key problems of the republic stem from the moment of its independence and are still present. Among them – Karabakh and related thereto armed struggle with Azerbaijan, that doesn’t have even diplomatic relations with Erevan, absence of near-border cooperation with neighbors due to the closed border with Turkey [2] which causes considerable losses to Armenian economy and affects the social and economic situation in the republic.
This way, right from the beginning of independence Armenia found itself in a blockade that significantly impacted its economic development. All of the above makes the foreign policy of the country easy to predict – it can successfully deal only with two large regional players – Russia and Iran.
Complicated social and economic situation, extremely low living standards, considerable migration (both to neighbor countries and to Europe and America) which resulted in a noticeable reduction of population, registered or really residing in the country, mainstreaming and growing attractiveness of the opposition while the situation in the republic is worsening clearly show how difficult the position of Armenia is. By the official data nearly a third of population lives below the poverty level.
It should be pointed out that this hard social and economic situation (first of all – energy crisis) was one of the main reason why the regime of the first President Levon Per-Petrosyan failed and was replaced by a popular Karabakh leader Robert Kocharyan (1998). It is symptomatic that all political elite of the contemporary Armenia is closely related to Karabakh – by family, ideology or policy. The uprise of Ter-Petrosyan in 1998 started from “Karabakh” committee. Kocharyan and Sargsyan represent a so called “Karabakh” clan, because their political luggage was accumulated in Karabakh and later on moved to Erevan.
Russia and Armenia today
Relations with Russia are vital for the proper existence of the republic. They were such in the 1990-ies; they are such today and shall remain in top priority at least in the near future. It is difficult to overestimate the Russian factor in the domestic and foreign policy of Armenia, in the aspects of safety and culture, economy and education.
Russia played the key role in the cessation of the military phase of Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict. Fundamental documents establishing a fragile peace in the region were singed with the active involvement of Russia. Russia is the cementing joint in OSCE Minsk group that acts as an intermediary trying to put the conflicting parties to the negotiation table (meeting in Meiendorf, Sochi, Astrakhan and Kazan). Russia, to a large extent, is a guarantor of security for Armenia surrounded by enemies. A recently signed agreement on the extension of stay for 102-nd Russian military base till 2044 provides a direct confirmation thereto. Russia was directly involved in the establishment of Armenia-Turkey dialogue finalized by the signing of Zurich protocols.
The Russian Federation is the largest foreign economic partner, lender and investor for Armenia. By experts’ estimates Russian investments make about 60% of all foreign investments in the republic. There are more than 1400 companies with Russian participation in Armenia.
Numerous large Russian companies and corporations are active on Armenian market. Cooperation in transportation, energy, telecommunication, banking and civil construction is noticeably successful.
Today Armenia is one of the closest allies and partners of Russia in the post-Soviet space. It is a member of CIS, CSTO, it joint the resolution on the creation of Collective Rapid Deployment Forces adopted soon after the August war (2008) by the CSTO summit in Moscow. It’s an outpost of Russian presence in Transcaucasus, with a high value for Russian policy in the region.
Armenian expatriates in Russia play a considerable role in bilateral relations. It’s the most numerous and the largest community of expats in the world and reaches the size of population in Armenia [3]. The expats are the main and regular channel of communication with Russia and one of the key sources of cash inflows.
In conclusion it should be highlighted that Russia is a key strategic partner for Armenia from the political, military and economic viewpoint. And no major changes are visible in the short or medium term perspective.
1. De Vaal. Black Garden. Armenia and Azerbaijan between peace and war.
2. Ankara took a pro-Azerbaijani position in Karabakh conflict and closed a border with Armenia out a pressure on Erevan.
3. By expert assessment nearly one third of population is indifferent to politics due to the dependence from the regular cash transfers from Russia.
