An Iraq free of occupiers
Sgt. 1st Class Justin Hathaway braves
a sandstorm after leaving the 9th Air and Space
Expeditionary Task Force-Iraq and U.S.
Forces-Iraq Provost Marshal Office at Al Asad
Air Base, Iraq, on September 27, 2011
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Doctor of History, Professor, Chief Researcher, IMEMO RAS
Iraq has been finally liberated from foreign troops eight years after occupation. The state survived and returned to the world stage. However, the country is still far from being stable. The Sunni-Shiite confrontation continues, while relations between Arabs and Kurds remain strained. The potentially richest country in the Arab world, hardly leaving the bloody chaos, is just finding a new path towards development. One thing is certain – this path will be difficult and painful.
Iraq has been finally liberated from foreign troops eight years after occupation. The state survived and returned to the world stage. However, the country is still far from being stable. The Sunni-Shiite confrontation continues, while relations between Arabs and Kurds remain strained. The potentially richest country in the Arab world, hardly leaving the bloody chaos, is just finding a new path towards development. One thing is certain – this path will be difficult and painful.
Freedom does not necessarily mean peace and happiness
The Americans has withdrawn from Iraq. After the bloody fall of the fascist regime of Saddam Hussein in Iraq, came freedom and this is probably the only positive result of the American intervention.
People can vote freely, dozens of political parties have emerged, freedom of speech, press, movement and travel abroad has been declared. The number of newspapers has increased from 5 to 180. The number of Internet connections in 2011 increased from 4.5 thousand to 1.6 million, while the number of mobile phones – from 80 thousand to 20 million.
After the bloody fall of the fascist regime of Saddam Hussein in Iraq, came freedom and this is probably the only positive result of the American intervention.
However, this is only one side of the coin. The other side is the still lingering economic devastation, disastrous financial situation of the population, lack of potable water and electricity, which is available only a few hours a day, ugly state of affairs in public health and education, and finally – corruption permeating everything from top to bottom.
The political picture also looks depressing. Sunnis and Shiites are still afraid and do not trust each other. Terrorist organization Al Qaeda has dramatically stepped up its activities in Iraq – Al Qaeda militants poured into the country shortly after the American intervention. However, Al Qaeda’s atrocities and terrorist attacks that have claimed the lives of numerous civilians, and attempts to impose the most inhuman and obscurantist practices in the guise of Sharia law, have turned even those people whom the militants came to help in Iraq – Sunni insurgents, so perturbed that the Shiites drove the traditional rule of the Sunni elite from power – against the militants themselves. The leaders of local Sunni insurgents must have thought that America was bad, but Al Qaeda was even worse, and the Sunnis turned against Al-Qaeda. This has allowed the U.S. ending their occupation of Iraq without the shame that happened to them in the 1970s in Vietnam.
The Americans are gone, and Al-Qaeda has once again raised its head. Time after time, there are bombings by Islamist jihadists in Baghdad and other cities. Their aim is to provoke a reaction from Shiite militias and the Shiite-led government to resume mutual clashes between faith-based communities, which six or seven years ago took away the lives of 3.5 thousand civilians. Just like before, there is no stability and peace in Iraq.
There is oil, and the rest will follow
The leaders of local Sunni insurgents must have thought that America was bad, but Al Qaeda was even worse.
There are countries, which name alone is immediately associated with the word “oil”. Iraq is one of such countries. This country ranks third in terms oil reserves in the world after Saudi Arabia and Iran. Iraq accounts for slightly less than 10% of the world’s proven oil reserves.
Contrary to the widely held believe that the American intervention had been started supposedly so that the U.S. could lay their hands on Iraqi oil, the country organized bidding, involving three dozen foreign companies. Russian company Lukoil, for example, received the right to develop the large West Qurna-2 field, with estimated reserves of 5 billion barrels of oil, while Gazprom Neft in the consortium began working at the Badr field with reserves of approximately 2 billion barrels. Rights to the largest field Rumaila (17 billion barrels) were also not awarded to the Americans, but to a consortium led by British Petroleum.
A man inspects the scene of
a bomb attack in Kerbala, Iraq,
on September 25, 2011
In total, Iraq produces about 2.5 million barrels of oil per day just like before the war began, while revenues from oil exports account for 60 billion dollars a year. Iraq is also becoming a major exporter of natural gas. But then, a state is rich not only by that. No other Arab country has such a combination of underground reserves of “black gold” and excellent opportunities for agricultural development: two great rivers – the Tigris and Euphrates, fertile soil, and a hot but not tropical climate. There is a lack of normal, reasonable, competent and honest government. Most experts believe that with the current rulers in power, these qualities are very far from being materializing.
Iraq relies only on oil, gas and high world prices. All other industries are in decline. Meanwhile, capitals from around the world are ready to participate not only in the development of Iraqi fields, but also in the development of the economy as a whole. However, political instability discourages private investment. As for international assistance to the country’s development, Iraq is allocated $162 billion ($53 billion of which is contributed by the USA). Japan finances restoration of Iraq’s infrastructure in the amount of about $70 million. Turkey is ready to transport liquefied Iraqi gas to the EU.
Russia’s participation in the reconstruction of Iraq will soon, apparently, be limited to the activities of the above-mentioned oil companies. In the future, we can speak of a much broader economic cooperation, but political stabilization and normalization is an indispensable prerequisite for this.
Federalism is the stumbling block
Iraq relies only on oil, gas and high world prices. All other industries are in decline. Meanwhile, capitals from around the world are ready to participate not only in the development of Iraqi fields, but also in the development of the economy as a whole.
And here, there is no normalization. What political system did the Americans and British leave behind? They say that democracy has been implemented in Iraq, and that the government is able to cope with the rebels on their own. Incidentally, the same is being said today about Afghanistan in connection with the forthcoming withdrawal of NATO troops. Nevertheless, the situation is different in Afghanistan: the government there is expected to, without the support of NATO forces, try to contain the onslaught of the powerful forces of extremist Islam, especially the Taliban, striving to restore their domination. In Iraq, the government does not have to worry that some monolithic armed opposition will start marching to Baghdad. Here, the threat is of another nature: the earlier-mentioned Al-Qaeda’s activation, which does not dream of taking power, but for a complete destabilization and chaos, which would end the “Shiite dominance” and assert the domination of Sunni Islamists, as well as for a resumption in the Sunni-Shiite confrontation.
A worker repairs an oil pipeline at
Rumaila oil fields, near the southern
city of Basra, Iraq, on October 9, 2011
It seemed that the way to cooperation between both branches of Islam has finally opened when the secular bloc, Iraqiya, led by former Prime Minister Ayad Allawi, which includes Sunnis and Shiites, came first in the last elections. But Nouri al-Maliki, leader of the oldest Shiite party, Al-Dawa, became once again the Prime Minister. Having agreed an alliance with the Shiite political paramilitary organization Mahdi Army, which is headed by the extremist religious leader Muqtada al-Sadr, Nouri al-Maliki outsmarted Ayad Allawi and pushed moderate secular forces away from power. Being autocratic and even dictatorial, Nouri al-Maliki launched a campaign against the most prominent Sunni political leaders, thereby significantly reducing the chances of Shiite-Sunni consensus.
The problem of federalism (Iraq is formally a federal republic) has come to the fore. According to the constitution, Iraqi Kurdistan, which is essentially an independent part of the country, received autonomy in 2005. In theory, other provinces may also apply for autonomy. Shiite Islamists at the time supported the principle of autonomy of the Kurdish region, believing that this would be a guarantee against restoration of Sunni dictatorship, while some even began demanding for the same autonomy as the Kurds for the densely populated Shiite and oil-rich southern region. Subsequently, this kind of sentiment spread to central areas, inhabited mainly by the Sunnis disaffected by Shiite domination of the central government. In 2011, Diyala and Salah ad-Din provinces voted for autonomy. The issue became a threat to the country’s disintegration, but now, the majority of Sunnis and Shiites, realizing the danger, are taking steps towards moving away from separatist demands.
Iraq has regained its independence, but this independence is rather relative. After all, this independence was received from the hands of the Americans, who, although have withdrawn their troops, continue being an important factor in determining Iraq’s foreign policy.
However, it is impossible to take away the autonomy from the Kurds, and apparently, things are moving towards the establishment of asymmetric federalism, in which Arab provinces of Iraq will enjoy much less autonomy than the Kurdish region. But how can the issue of Kirkuk be resolved? This city, separating the Arab and Kurdish parts of the country, is of a symbolic significance for the Kurds. Ten years ago, this writer separately interviewed Jalal Talabani (current president of Iraq) and Massoud Barzani (current President of the Iraqi Kurdistan Region). Both men said the same thing: Kirkuk is our Kurdish Jerusalem. The Basic Law of Iraqi Kurdistan says that Kirkuk is the capital of the region. But the Arabs did not agree with this, the more so that Kirkuk is located near the second largest oil and gas fields in Iraq, which may fetch $1 trillion in the next ten years, but into whose coffers – Baghdad or Erbil (the issue of Kirkuk has not be resolved there, is the center of Iraqi Kurdistan)? The problem of distribution of income from the Kirkuk-Mosul oil is one of the hottest in recent years.
Conclusion
Iraq has regained its independence, but this independence is rather relative. After all, this independence was received from the hands of the Americans, who, although have withdrawn their troops, continue being an important factor in determining Iraq’s foreign policy. The most important, but not the only one: Shiite Iran, primarily due to relations with the central Iraqi government, dominated by Shiites is a state without which Baghdad could not take any serious steps. This is particularly noticeable now when the Arab Spring came: Iraqi Sunni fighters are helped by Syrian rebels, while the Shiite-controlled Iraqi government forced to reckon with Tehran, is afraid of the falling of the Alawite (semi-Shiite) power in Syria. This is a kind of symptom that unity, consensus and stabilization of Iraq are still very far away.
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